02:30
H
86.4% -0.6%
D
9.6% -44.3%
A
4.0% -36.0%
Home
O2.5 69.9% · BTTS 40.4%
Score
4–0
5–0
HitFootball predictions today · Thu 23 Apr
205 graded O2.5 59% BTTS 57% 1X2 47% Full record →
02:30
H
78.8% +15.0%
D
11.7% -45.6%
A
9.6% -43.4%
O2.5
+25.8%
O2.5 85.0% · BTTS 69.2%
Score
4–1
0–0
Miss02:30
H
92.2% +34.6%
D
6.2% -72.7%
A
1.6% -89.8%
Home
+34.6%
O2.5 71.6% · BTTS 27.9%
Score
4–0
5–1
Hit
03:06
H
30.3% -30.3%
D
31.5% +10.3%
A
38.2% +9.3%
No bet
O2.5 30.2% · BTTS 37.9%
Score
1–1
3–1
Skipped03:10
H
27.0% +51.2%
D
21.9% -5.2%
A
51.1% -22.8%
O2.5
+0.6%
O2.5 64.9% · BTTS 64.3%
Score
1–3
0–0
Miss
08:30
H
57.8% +30.0%
D
21.8% -28.1%
A
20.3% -43.2%
O2.5
+7.1%
O2.5 57.9% · BTTS 56.2%
Score
2–1
0–1
Miss12:00
H
62.9% +11.3%
D
18.6% -34.9%
A
18.6% -25.6%
O2.5
+25.3%
O2.5 70.8% · BTTS 65.0%
Score
3–1
0–2
Miss
11:30
H
56.3% +18.2%
D
22.4% -27.2%
A
21.3% -31.8%
O2.5
+9.2%
O2.5 56.6% · BTTS 55.8%
Score
2–1
1–2
Hit14:00
H
44.2% -21.8%
D
29.7% +2.5%
A
26.2% +4.8%
No bet
O2.5 34.0% · BTTS 40.3%
Score
2–0
2–1
Skipped
12:00
H
11.1% -17.9%
D
17.2% -24.3%
A
71.7% -4.6%
Away
O2.5 60.3% · BTTS 49.5%
Score
0–3
0–4
Hit12:00
H
5.6% -44.0%
D
13.6% -37.4%
A
80.8% +1.0%
Away
+1.0%
O2.5 57.5% · BTTS 36.3%
Score
0–3
1–0
Miss
12:15
H
27.5% -27.1%
D
24.0% -18.4%
A
48.5% +13.0%
BTTS
O2.5 55.4% · BTTS 57.2%
Score
1–2
1–0
Miss
14:00
H
48.9% -13.5%
D
24.9% -15.3%
A
26.2% +7.4%
BTTS
O2.5 50.4% · BTTS 53.1%
Score
2–1
2–1
Hit
14:00
H
53.7% +2.0%
D
25.6% -20.6%
A
20.8% -12.6%
Home
+2.0%
O2.5 43.3% · BTTS 45.4%
Score
2–0
3–2
Hit16:00
H
31.2% +121.5%
D
22.8% -4.2%
A
45.9% -35.7%
BTTS
+22.4%
O2.5 63.3% · BTTS 64.1%
Score
1–3
0–1
Miss18:00
H
31.9% +10.1%
D
31.1% -7.3%
A
36.9% -20.3%
No bet
O2.5 31.4% · BTTS 39.1%
Score
1–1
0–0
Skipped
14:00
H
22.8% -29.3%
D
23.4% -20.4%
A
53.8% +14.1%
BTTS
O2.5 53.9% · BTTS 54.4%
Score
1–2
0–2
Miss14:00
H
40.4% +9.9%
D
26.3% -13.2%
A
33.3% -20.8%
BTTS
O2.5 48.4% · BTTS 52.9%
Score
2–1
1–2
Hit16:45
H
9.4% -25.7%
D
17.5% -22.1%
A
73.1% -0.6%
Away
O2.5 53.9% · BTTS 42.0%
Score
0–3
0–2
Hit
14:30
H
62.6% +57.1%
D
23.6% -25.7%
A
13.8% -56.7%
Home
+57.1%
O2.5 40.9% · BTTS 38.4%
Score
2–0
1–1
Miss16:45
H
23.6% -23.3%
D
30.1% -4.9%
A
46.3% +13.0%
No bet
O2.5 31.6% · BTTS 37.6%
Score
0–2
1–1
Skipped16:45
H
28.8% -31.5%
D
24.2% -14.8%
A
47.0% +42.9%
BTTS
O2.5 55.4% · BTTS 57.6%
Score
1–2
1–2
Hit
15:00
H
27.9% +0.4%
D
28.7% +0.4%
A
43.4% -19.7%
No bet
O2.5 37.6% · BTTS 43.6%
Score
0–2
1–2
Skipped
16:00
H
25.2% -25.7%
D
21.7% -20.8%
A
53.1% +16.8%
O2.5
+1.3%
O2.5 64.5% · BTTS 63.4%
Score
1–3
1–1
Miss16:00
H
43.4% -24.1%
D
24.5% -5.7%
A
32.0% +34.4%
BTTS
O2.5 55.5% · BTTS 58.3%
Score
2–1
2–2
Hit18:00
H
14.8% -23.0%
D
17.9% -26.6%
A
67.3% +5.7%
Away
+5.7%
O2.5 66.7% · BTTS 58.7%
Score
1–3
1–2
Hit
16:00
H
1.1% -83.5%
D
4.3% -65.6%
A
94.6% +5.0%
Away
+5.0%
O2.5 78.5% · BTTS 28.1%
Score
1–4
0–4
Hit
16:10
H
8.5% -60.9%
D
12.7% -53.0%
A
78.8% +36.3%
Away
+36.3%
O2.5 75.5% · BTTS 57.9%
Score
1–3
1–2
Hit18:00
H
48.3% -20.8%
D
27.7% +5.3%
A
24.0% +22.4%
No bet
O2.5 38.7% · BTTS 43.3%
Score
2–0
2–0
Skipped
16:45
H
46.5% +34.8%
D
21.3% -18.0%
A
32.3% -30.6%
O2.5
+7.4%
O2.5 71.6% · BTTS 70.7%
Score
3–1
0–0
Miss19:00
H
89.7% +5.9%
D
6.1% -56.7%
A
4.2% -49.6%
O2.5
+12.3%
O2.5 93.6% · BTTS 70.5%
Score
4–1
6–1
Hit17:00
H
67.0% +13.2%
D
17.8% -30.6%
A
15.2% -37.7%
O2.5
+3.6%
O2.5 67.7% · BTTS 60.0%
Score
3–1
3–2
Hit
17:00
H
50.6% +28.5%
D
22.3% -29.8%
A
27.1% -23.6%
O2.5
+32.5%
O2.5 63.1% · BTTS 62.9%
Score
3–1
2–0
Miss18:00
H
52.0% +4.0%
D
25.8% -17.4%
A
22.2% -13.4%
Home
+4.0%
O2.5 43.8% · BTTS 46.5%
Score
2–0
1–0
Hit19:30
H
19.0% -35.4%
D
24.1% -20.5%
A
57.0% +20.8%
Away
+20.8%
O2.5 46.6% · BTTS 46.9%
Score
0–3
1–1
Miss
18:00
H
46.0% +30.6%
D
37.4% -0.9%
A
16.6% -53.8%
No bet
O2.5 15.3% · BTTS 20.8%
Score
2–0
1–1
Skipped18:00
H
61.8% +73.0%
D
24.1% -28.2%
A
14.2% -64.2%
Home
+73.0%
O2.5 39.9% · BTTS 38.0%
Score
2–0
1–0
Hit
18:00
H
52.6% -8.0%
D
21.2% -25.8%
A
26.2% -0.4%
O2.5
O2.5 67.8% · BTTS 66.3%
Score
3–1
4–3
Hit
18:00
H
12.9% -25.8%
D
17.6% -32.2%
A
69.4% +9.0%
Away
+9.0%
O2.5 63.3% · BTTS 54.1%
Score
1–3
0–1
Hit
19:00
H
37.4% -33.8%
D
27.8% +1.5%
A
34.8% +49.6%
No bet
O2.5 42.5% · BTTS 48.4%
Score
2–0
2–0
Skipped
20:00
H
73.9% +78.8%
D
13.4% -54.4%
A
12.8% -64.7%
O2.5
+53.2%
O2.5 85.1% · BTTS 73.1%
Score
4–1
1–0
Miss
20:30
H
7.8% +1.4%
D
15.1% -9.4%
A
77.2% -9.7%
Away
O2.5 59.6% · BTTS 43.2%
Score
0–3
0–1
Hit21:30
H
59.2% +37.9%
D
21.6% -30.9%
A
19.2% -45.3%
Home
+37.9%
O2.5 57.5% · BTTS 55.2%
Score
2–1
4–0
Hit
23:00
H
40.2% +38.7%
D
32.8% -1.6%
A
27.0% -39.5%
No bet
O2.5 26.3% · BTTS 34.0%
Score
2–0
0–4
Skipped
23:00
H
64.9% +36.3%
D
19.9% -38.3%
A
15.2% -43.0%
Home
+36.3%
O2.5 57.6% · BTTS 52.1%
Score
2–1
1–2
Miss—
H
49.2%
D
33.0%
A
17.8%
— no odds —
No bet
O2.5 22.1% · BTTS 27.2%
Score
2–0
0–0
Skipped—
H
80.9%
D
12.8%
A
6.3%
— no odds —
Home
O2.5 65.0% · BTTS 43.9%
Score
4–0
Pending
—
H
58.2%
D
22.0%
A
19.7%
— no odds —
Home
O2.5 56.1% · BTTS 54.4%
Score
2–1
3–1
Hit—
H
65.6%
D
22.3%
A
12.1%
— no odds —
Home
O2.5 42.4% · BTTS 37.7%
Score
2–0
0–0
Miss—
H
36.6%
D
27.3%
A
36.2%
— no odds —
BTTS
O2.5 44.5% · BTTS 50.0%
Score
2–1
1–4
HitHow the model calls it
01 · Strength
Attack and defence ratings per team from recent form, weighted by opposition — the inputs behind expected goals.
02 · Poisson
Goal expectancies become a full scoreline matrix: win, draw, Over 2.5, BTTS and top correct scores from one distribution.
03 · Edge
Model probability vs live bookmaker odds. A positive gap is value, flagged on every outcome as +EV%. No edge, no bet.
Questions, answered straight
How accurate are these football predictions?
Every pick is graded automatically at full time and kept on the public record. The full history, including losing days, is on the Accuracy page.
What is a value bet?
A bet where the model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds. If the model says 49% and the odds imply 34%, that gap is the edge — shown as +EV% next to each outcome. Value bets can still lose; the point is being paid more than the risk is worth over hundreds of bets.
How does a Poisson model predict matches?
It estimates how many goals each team is expected to score from attack and defence strength, then computes the probability of every scoreline. Summing those scorelines gives win/draw/loss, Over/Under and BTTS probabilities from a single consistent model.
Are the predictions free?
Yes — every match, every league, every day.
Why does the model say "No bet" on some matches?
When no outcome clears the confidence threshold, the model passes. Skipping bad spots is part of how the hit rate stays honest — a tip site that picks every match is selling volume, not edge.