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Ghazl El M. vs Petrojet Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 6 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 18:00

Ghazl El M.

PPG 1.23 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Petrojet

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.2%0-111.2%0-22.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.9%1-110.2%1-22.2%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-010.9%2-14.7%2-21.0%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.3%3-11.4%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 35.2% 2.84 +30.6%

Draw 37.4% 37.7% 2.65 -0.9%

Away win 16.6% 36.0% 2.78 -53.8%

Over 2.5 15.3% 34.7% 2.88 -55.9%

Over 3.5 4.7% 17.4% 5.75 -73.0%

BTTS 20.8% 46.5% 2.15 -55.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob20.8%

H 46% / xG 0.9-0.4 / U2.5 15% / NoBTTS 21%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.2%

#2 1–0 23.9%

#3 0–1 11.2%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 1–1✓ 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ghazl El M.0.9

Petrojet0.4

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 15.3% · O3.5 PROB 4.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GHAZL EL M. · PPG 1.23

PETROJET · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.23), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Ghazl El M. (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV +30.6%

Draw 37.4%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -0.9%

Petrojet (A) 16.6%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -53.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ghazl El M. face Petrojet in Egypt - Premier League on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ghazl El M. a 46% chance, the draw 37% and Petrojet 17%, so Ghazl El M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Ghazl El M. and 0.4 for Petrojet (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 15% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 21% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ghazl El M. are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.00 for Petrojet. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Ghazl El M. vs Petrojet Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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