Today / Jamaica - Premier League / Dunbeholden vs Harbour View

Dunbeholden vs Harbour View Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Regular Season - 36 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 21:30

Dunbeholden

PPG 1.59 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Harbour View

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 42.9% — a clear edge.

+37.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.2%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.9%1-110.1%1-25.2%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-110.0%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.4%3-16.5%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-15.0%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% 42.9% 2.33 +37.9%

Draw 21.6% 31.3% 3.20 -30.9%

Away win 19.2% 35.1% 2.85 -45.3%

Over 2.5 57.5% 48.8% 2.05 +17.9%

Over 3.5 35.1% 27.0% 3.70 +29.9%

BTTS 55.2% 55.6% 1.80 -0.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.2%

H 59% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 10.0%

#3 1–0 9.9%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dunbeholden2.0

Harbour View1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.5% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNBEHOLDEN · PPG 1.59

HARBOUR VIEW · PPG 0.71

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.59) vs P(Home)=59.2%

Win probability 1X2

Dunbeholden (H) 59.2%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +37.9%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -30.9%

Harbour View (A) 19.2%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -45.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dunbeholden face Harbour View in Jamaica - Premier League on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dunbeholden a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Harbour View 19%, so Dunbeholden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Dunbeholden and 1.0 for Harbour View (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dunbeholden are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 0.71 for Harbour View. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +37.9%. This match finished 4-0.

Dunbeholden vs Harbour View Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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