Liga MX

MEXICO · 15 MATCHES TRACKED · 18 APR 2026 – 26 APR 2026

▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE

MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 15 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

40.0%

1X2

6/15

46.7%

O/U 2.5

7/15

33.3%

BTTS

5/15

40.0%

Exact score

6/15

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

70.0%

Hit rate

7/10

1.61

Avg odds

+16.3%

ROI

+1.6u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

HOME WIN · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.38 · -8.3% ROI

BTTS · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.59 · +6.3% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.57 · +5.0% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 2.54 · +154.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

100%

Hit

+154.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

Hit

-100.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

100%

Hit

+61.3%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

60%

Hit

-15.0%

ROI

Match log

15 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

April 2026 // 10 PICKS · 7 HIT · 3 MISS

26 APR Juarez vs A. San Luis BTTS -3% 2–1 HIT 26 APR CF America vs Atlas — NO PICK 0–1 —26 APR Santos Laguna vs Monterrey Over 2.5 -9% 3–0 HIT 25 APR Puebla vs Queretaro — NO PICK 1–2 —25 APR Tigres vs Mazatlan Home -5% 5–1 HIT 23 APR Tijuana vs Pachuca — NO PICK 3–1 —23 APR Necaxa vs Guadalajara Over 2.5 +1% 0–0 MISS 22 APR Monterrey vs Puebla Home +5% 2–1 HIT 22 APR Club Leon vs CF America — NO PICK 2–3 —19 APR Club Leon vs Juarez Over 2.5 +15% 3–1 HIT 19 APR CF America vs Toluca — NO PICK 2–1 —19 APR Santos Laguna vs Atlas BTTS -1% 0–1 MISS 18 APR Atletico Cali vs Union Magdalena Away +46% 0–2 HIT 18 APR Necaxa vs Tigres BTTS -18% 1–1 HIT 18 APR Cruz Azul vs Tijuana Home -6% 1–1 MISS