Liga MX
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 49 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
40.8%
1X2
20/49
49.0%
O/U 2.5
24/49
44.9%
BTTS
22/49
42.9%
Exact score
21/49
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
18
Settled
44.4%
Hit rate
8/18
2.15
Avg odds
-19.2%
ROI
-3.5u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=11 45.5% HIT · AVG 1.74 · -21.7% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 5.27 · +27.0% ROI
HOME WIN · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.63 · -21.5% ROI
BTTS · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.76 · -8.5% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.25 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
50%
Hit
+27.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
5
Bets
40%
Hit
-26.8%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
10
Bets
40%
Hit
-32.2%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
1
Bets
100%
Hit
+57.0%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 15 PICKS · 9 HIT · 6 MISS
31 AUG Toluca vs FC Juarez Home -10% 4–0 HIT31 AUG Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis HO1.5 1–3 MISS30 AUG Club America vs Puebla HO1.5 2–0 HIT30 AUG Santos Laguna vs Tigres UANL BTTS -3% 0–0 MISS29 AUG Necaxa vs Cruz Azul Over 2.5 +3% 1–3 HIT29 AUG Club Tijuana vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas Over 2.5 +1% 2–0 MISS29 AUG Atlas vs Club Queretaro BTTS -10% 1–3 HIT29 AUG CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas BTTS -15% 1–1 HIT24 AUG U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Necaxa Over 2.5 +7% 1–1 MISS23 AUG Puebla vs Santos Laguna Over 2.5 +1% 3–2 HIT23 AUG Cruz Azul vs Atlas Over 2.5 +7% 0–2 MISS23 AUG Atletico San Luis vs CF Pachuca BTTS -7% 1–1 HIT22 AUG Leon vs Monterrey Over 2.5 +1% 2–0 MISS22 AUG FC Juarez vs Club America Over 2.5 +3% 1–2 HIT22 AUG Club Queretaro vs Toluca BTTS -19% 1–2 HIT