Today / Serbia - Super Liga / Radnicki Nis vs Javor Ivanjica

Radnicki Nis vs Javor Ivanjica Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Relegation Group - 32 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 14:00

Radnicki Nis

PPG 1.60 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Javor Ivanjica

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-17.7%0-23.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.9%1-112.0%1-25.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.3%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.6%3-14.8%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 52.6% 1.90 +2.0%

Draw 25.6% 32.3% 3.10 -20.6%

Away win 20.8% 23.8% 4.20 -12.6%

Over 2.5 43.3% 45.5% 2.20 -4.7%

Over 3.5 22.4% 25.0% 4.00 -10.4%

BTTS 45.4% 51.8% 1.93 -12.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.4%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.9%

#2 1–1 12.0%

#3 2–0 10.8%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Radnicki Nis1.6

Javor Ivanjica0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.3% · O3.5 PROB 22.4%

Form & verdict PPG

RADNICKI NIS · PPG 1.60

JAVOR IVANJICA · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Radnicki Nis (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +2.0%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -20.6%

Javor Ivanjica (A) 20.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Radnicki Nis face Javor Ivanjica in Serbia - Super Liga on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Radnicki Nis a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Javor Ivanjica 21%, so Radnicki Nis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Radnicki Nis and 0.9 for Javor Ivanjica (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Radnicki Nis are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.87 for Javor Ivanjica. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 3-2.

Radnicki Nis vs Javor Ivanjica Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Serbia - Super Liga Predictions