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Pyunik vs Urartu Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 23 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 14:00

Pyunik

PPG 2.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Urartu

PPG 2.27 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-110.9%0-24.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.4%1-113.1%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.3%2-17.9%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.7%3-13.2%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 56.5% 1.77 -21.8%

Draw 29.7% 29.0% 3.45 +2.5%

Away win 26.2% 25.0% 4.00 +4.8%

Over 2.5 34.0% 51.8% 1.93 -34.4%

Over 3.5 15.4% 29.9% 3.35 -48.4%

BTTS 40.3% 55.6% 1.80 -27.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob40.3%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.4%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 12.7%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pyunik1.2

Urartu0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 15.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PYUNIK · PPG 2.33

URARTU · PPG 2.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.33), Away EXCELLENT (2.27)

Win probability 1X2

Pyunik (H) 44.2%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -21.8%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +2.5%

Urartu (A) 26.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pyunik face Urartu in Armenia - Premier League on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pyunik a 44% chance, the draw 30% and Urartu 26%, so Pyunik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Pyunik and 0.9 for Urartu (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pyunik are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.27 for Urartu. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Pyunik vs Urartu Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Armenia - Premier League Predictions