Today / Russia - Premier League / Akhmat Grozny vs Baltika

Akhmat Grozny vs Baltika Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Regular Season - 26 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 16:45

Akhmat Grozny

PPG 1.83 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Baltika

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-116.7%0-210.1%0-34.0%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.7%1-112.9%1-27.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-04.1%2-14.9%2-23.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.1%3-11.3%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% 30.8% 3.25 -23.3%

Draw 30.1% 31.6% 3.16 -4.9%

Away win 46.3% 41.0% 2.44 +13.0%

Over 2.5 31.6% 43.1% 2.32 -26.7%

Over 3.5 13.8% 23.8% 4.20 -42.0%

BTTS 37.6% 52.1% 1.92 -27.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 67%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob37.6%

A 46% / xG 0.8-1.2 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.7%

#2 0–0 13.9%

#3 1–1✓ 12.9%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 0–2 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Akhmat Grozny0.8

Baltika1.2

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.6% · O3.5 PROB 13.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AKHMAT GROZNY · PPG 1.83

BALTIKA · PPG 1.46

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.83) > Away AVERAGE (1.46)

Win probability 1X2

Akhmat Grozny (H) 23.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -23.3%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.16 · IMPLIED 31.6% EV -4.9%

Baltika (A) 46.3%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV +13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Akhmat Grozny face Baltika in Russia - Premier League on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Akhmat Grozny a 24% chance, the draw 30% and Baltika 46%, so Baltika are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Akhmat Grozny and 1.2 for Baltika (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Akhmat Grozny are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.46 for Baltika. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Akhmat Grozny vs Baltika Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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