Today / Denmark - Superliga / Nordsjaelland vs AGF Aarhus

Nordsjaelland vs AGF Aarhus Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Championship Group - 28 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 16:00

Nordsjaelland

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

AGF Aarhus

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-17.2%0-27.2%0-34.8%0-4+3.8%1 1-04.8%1-19.5%1-29.5%1-36.4%1-4+5.0%2 2-03.2%2-16.3%2-26.3%2-34.2%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.4%3-12.8%3-22.8%3-31.9%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.2% 33.9% 2.95 -25.7%

Draw 21.7% 27.4% 3.65 -20.8%

Away win 53.1% 45.5% 2.20 +16.8%

Over 2.5 64.5% 63.7% 1.57 +1.3%

Over 3.5 42.5% 41.7% 2.40 +2.0%

BTTS 63.4% 69.0% 1.45 -8.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.4%

A 53% / xG 1.3-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.5%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–1 7.2%

#4 0–2 7.2%

#5 1–3 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nordsjaelland1.3

AGF Aarhus2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.5% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NORDSJAELLAND · PPG 2.00

AGF AARHUS · PPG 2.07

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.07)

Win probability 1X2

Nordsjaelland (H) 25.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -25.7%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -20.8%

AGF Aarhus (A) 53.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nordsjaelland face AGF Aarhus in Denmark - Superliga on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nordsjaelland a 25% chance, the draw 22% and AGF Aarhus 53%, so AGF Aarhus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Nordsjaelland and 2.0 for AGF Aarhus (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nordsjaelland are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.07 for AGF Aarhus. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Nordsjaelland vs AGF Aarhus Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Denmark - Superliga Predictions