Today / Denmark - 1. Division / Aalborg BK vs B 93

Aalborg BK vs B 93 Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Relegation Group - 26 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 17:00

Aalborg BK

PPG 1.75 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

B 93

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.3%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.4%1-17.9%1-24.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.9%2-19.6%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.2%3-17.7%3-24.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-18.2%4+-24.4%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.0% 59.2% 1.69 +13.2%

Draw 17.8% 25.6% 3.90 -30.6%

Away win 15.2% 24.4% 4.10 -37.7%

Over 2.5 67.7% 65.4% 1.53 +3.6%

Over 3.5 46.1% 42.6% 2.35 +8.3%

BTTS 60.0% 66.7% 1.50 -10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.0%

H 67% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 2–0 8.9%

#3 1–1 7.9%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 1–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aalborg BK2.4

B 931.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.7% · O3.5 PROB 46.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AALBORG BK · PPG 1.75

B 93 · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Aalborg BK (H) 67.0%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV +13.2%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -30.6%

B 93 (A) 15.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -37.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aalborg BK face B 93 in Denmark - 1. Division on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aalborg BK a 67% chance, the draw 18% and B 93 15%, so Aalborg BK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Aalborg BK and 1.1 for B 93 (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aalborg BK are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.50 for B 93. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 3-2.

Aalborg BK vs B 93 Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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