Primeira Liga

PORTUGAL · 48 MATCHES TRACKED · 13 APR 2026 – 16 MAY 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 47 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

46.8%

1X2

22/47

57.4%

O/U 2.5

27/47

46.8%

BTTS

22/47

48.9%

Exact score

23/47

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

48.8%

Hit rate

21/43

1.64

Avg odds

-23.2%

ROI

-10.0u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

HOME WIN · N=18 55.6% HIT · AVG 1.58 · -19.2% ROI

BTTS · N=12 41.7% HIT · AVG 1.77 · -24.8% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=7 42.9% HIT · AVG 1.73 · -24.6% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=6 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.45 · -30.8% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

33%

Hit

-47.7%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

67%

Hit

-13.3%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

57%

Hit

+9.4%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

44%

Hit

-31.2%

ROI

Match log

47 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 14 PICKS · 8 HIT · 6 MISS

16 MAY Moreirense vs AVS Home -4% 0–0 MISS 16 MAY FC Porto vs Santa Clara Home -17% 1–0 HIT 16 MAY Nacional vs Guimaraes BTTS -16% 2–0 MISS 16 MAY Sporting Braga vs Estrela Amadora Home +0% 2–2 MISS 16 MAY Casa Pia vs Rio Ave BTTS -9% 1–1 HIT 16 MAY Arouca vs Tondela BTTS -11% 3–1 HIT 16 MAY Sporting CP vs Gil Vicente Home -28% 3–0 HIT 16 MAY Famalicao vs Alverca Home -17% 1–0 HIT 16 MAY Estoril vs Benfica Over 2.5 -14% 1–3 HIT 11 MAY Rio Ave vs Sporting CP Away -19% 1–4 HIT 11 MAY Tondela vs Moreirense BTTS -6% 2–0 MISS 11 MAY Santa Clara vs Nacional — NO PICK 2–0 —11 MAY Guimaraes vs Casa Pia BTTS -5% 0–1 MISS 11 MAY Gil Vicente vs Arouca Over 2.5 +9% 1–3 HIT 11 MAY Estrela Amadora vs Famalicao BTTS -11% 0–0 MISS