| Grade | Bets | Hit% | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 3 | 33.3% | −6133.0% |
| C | 1 | 0.0% | −10000.0% |
| F | 11 | 63.6% | +2618.0% |
| Unrated | 3 | 33.3% | −2733.0% |
| Market | Bets | Hit% | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 9 | 55.6% | +1011.0% |
| Over2.5 | 6 | 33.3% | −3617.0% |
| Away | 2 | 50.0% | −2150.0% |
| BTTS | 1 | 100.0% | +9100.0% |
| Verdict | Bets | Hit% | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value | 1 | 0.0% | −10000.0% |
| ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | Best EV: Home @15% | 1 | 100.0% | +11800.0% |
| 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned | Best EV: Home @52% | 1 | 0.0% | −10000.0% |
| ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | Best EV: Over2.5 @27% | 1 | 0.0% | −10000.0% |
| ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | Best EV: Home @11% | 1 | 0.0% | −10000.0% |
| ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | Best EV: Over2.5 @11% | 1 | 100.0% | +1600.0% |
| ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | Best EV: Home @8% | 1 | 0.0% | −10000.0% |
| ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | Best EV: Home @27% | 1 | 0.0% | −10000.0% |
| 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity | Best EV: Over2.5 @20% | 1 | 100.0% | +5700.0% |
| ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | Best EV: Home @23% | 1 | 100.0% | +10000.0% |
| ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value | 1 | 0.0% | −10000.0% |
| ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | Best EV: Home @17% | 1 | 100.0% | +9000.0% |
| 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity | Best EV: Over2.5 @19% | 1 | 0.0% | −10000.0% |
| ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | Best EV: Over2.5 @18% | 1 | 100.0% | +6200.0% |
| ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | Best EV: Over2.5 @14% | 1 | 100.0% | +9100.0% |
| ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | Best EV: Over2.5 @9% | 1 | 100.0% | +8300.0% |
| ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value | Best EV: Home @54% | 1 | 100.0% | +20500.0% |
| ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | Best EV: Over2.5 @6% | 1 | 0.0% | −10000.0% |
| Date | Match | Pick | Odds | Result | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May | FC Porto vs Santa Clara | Home | -17% EV | 1-0 | HIT |
| 16 May | Moreirense vs AVS | Home | -4% EV | 0-0 | MISS |
| 16 May | Arouca vs Tondela | BTTS | -11% EV | 3-1 | HIT |
| 16 May | Casa Pia vs Rio Ave | BTTS | -9% EV | 1-1 | HIT |
| 16 May | Nacional vs Guimaraes | BTTS | -16% EV | 2-0 | MISS |
| 16 May | Sporting Braga vs Estrela Amadora | Home | 0% EV | 2-2 | MISS |
| 16 May | Estoril vs Benfica | Over 2.5 | -14% EV | 1-3 | HIT |
| 16 May | Sporting CP vs Gil Vicente | Home | -28% EV | 3-0 | HIT |
| 16 May | Famalicao vs Alverca | Home | -17% EV | 1-0 | HIT |
| 11 May | Santa Clara vs Nacional | — | — | 2-0 | — |
| 11 May | Tondela vs Moreirense | BTTS | -6% EV | 2-0 | MISS |
| 11 May | Benfica vs Sporting Braga | BTTS | -4% EV | 2-2 | HIT |
| 11 May | Estrela Amadora vs Famalicao | BTTS | -11% EV | 0-0 | MISS |
| 11 May | Gil Vicente vs Arouca | Over 2.5 | 9% EV | 1-3 | HIT |
| 11 May | Guimaraes vs Casa Pia | BTTS | -5% EV | 0-1 | MISS |
| 11 May | Rio Ave vs Sporting CP | Away | -19% EV | 1-4 | HIT |
| 10 May | AVS vs FC Porto | Away | -19% EV | 3-1 | MISS |
| 10 May | Alverca vs Estoril | Over 2.5 | 1% EV | 1-1 | MISS |
| 4 May | Sporting CP vs Guimaraes | Home | -13% EV | 5-1 | HIT |
| 3 May | Casa Pia vs Tondela | BTTS | -2% EV | 0-1 | MISS |
| 3 May | Sporting Braga vs Estoril | Over 2.5 | 3% EV | 1-1 | MISS |
| 3 May | Rio Ave vs Gil Vicente | BTTS | -5% EV | 0-0 | MISS |
| 2 May | Arouca vs Santa Clara | BTTS | 5% EV | 2-2 | HIT |
| 2 May | Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora | BTTS | -0% EV | 3-2 | HIT |
| 2 May | Nacional vs AVS | Home | -15% EV | 1-2 | MISS |
| 2 May | Famalicao vs Benfica | — | — | 2-2 | — |
| 2 May | FC Porto vs Alverca | Home | -21% EV | 1-0 | HIT |
| 29 Apr | Sporting CP vs Tondela | Home | -10% EV | 2-2 | MISS |
| 27 Apr | Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia | Home | 8% EV | 2-1 | HIT |
| 26 Apr | Estoril vs Famalicao | Over 2.5 | -1% EV | 0-1 | MISS |
| 26 Apr | Santa Clara vs Sporting Braga | Away | 15% EV | 2-1 | MISS |
| 26 Apr | Estrela Amadora vs FC Porto | Away | -10% EV | 1-2 | HIT |
| 26 Apr | AVS vs Sporting CP | Away | -17% EV | 1-1 | MISS |
| 25 Apr | Tondela vs Nacional | — | — | 0-2 | — |
| 25 Apr | Benfica vs Moreirense | Home | -2% EV | 4-1 | HIT |
| 25 Apr | Guimaraes vs Rio Ave | Home | 17% EV | 2-0 | HIT |
| 24 Apr | Alverca vs Arouca | Over 2.5 | 22% EV | 2-1 | HIT |
| 23 Apr | Casa Pia vs Sporting Braga | Away | 9% EV | 0-1 | HIT |
| 20 Apr | Moreirense vs Estoril | BTTS | 13% EV | 1-0 | MISS |
| 19 Apr | Arouca vs Estrela Amadora | Over 2.5 | 27% EV | 1-0 | MISS |
| 19 Apr | Sporting CP vs Benfica | Home | 11% EV | 1-2 | MISS |
| 19 Apr | Sporting Braga vs Famalicao | Home | 8% EV | 2-2 | MISS |
| 19 Apr | FC Porto vs Tondela | Home | 8% EV | 2-0 | HIT |
| 18 Apr | Nacional vs Alverca | Home | 15% EV | 1-0 | HIT |
| 18 Apr | Casa Pia vs Santa Clara | — | — | 0-0 | — |
| 18 Apr | Gil Vicente vs Guimaraes | Home | 52% EV | 0-1 | MISS |
| 17 Apr | Rio Ave vs AVS | Home | -9% EV | 2-2 | MISS |