Leagues / PORTUGAL / Primeira Liga
Primeira Liga
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions
DateMatchPickProbOddsEV
4 SEPT19:15 FC Porto vs Moreirense Home 67% 1.17 -22%// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 73 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
50.7%
1X2
37/73
53.4%
O/U 2.5
39/73
53.4%
BTTS
39/73
50.7%
Exact score
37/73
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
25
Settled
52.0%
Hit rate
13/25
1.86
Avg odds
-5.4%
ROI
-1.4u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=10 60.0% HIT · AVG 1.83 · +4.9% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=7 42.9% HIT · AVG 1.86 · -15.3% ROI
BTTS · N=6 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.91 · -5.7% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.90 · -21.5% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
4
Bets
50%
Hit
-17.5%
ROI
✓ Solid
2
Bets
100%
Hit
+39.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
12
Bets
58%
Hit
+13.0%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
7
Bets
29%
Hit
-42.7%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 12 PICKS · 7 HIT · 5 MISS
31 AUG SC Braga vs Vitória SC BTTS -3% 1–0 MISS31 AUG Benfica vs Estoril HO1.5 2–1 HIT30 AUG Nacional vs Estrela BTTS -6% 2–3 HIT30 AUG Casa Pia vs Moreirense BTTS +13% 0–1 MISS30 AUG Famalicao vs GIL Vicente — NO PICK 0–0 —29 AUG Alverca vs Santa Clara BTTS +0% 1–1 HIT28 AUG Rio Ave vs Sporting CP Over 2.5 -10% 0–4 HIT24 AUG GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia Home +22% 2–0 HIT23 AUG Vitória SC vs Nacional BTTS -2% 1–0 MISS23 AUG Santa Clara vs Famalicao — NO PICK 1–0 —23 AUG FC Porto vs Arouca HO1.5 2–0 HIT22 AUG Estoril vs Rio Ave — NO PICK 0–2 —22 AUG Sporting CP vs Alverca HO1.5 3–1 HIT17 AUG Casa Pia vs Benfica BTTS +3% 0–7 MISS16 AUG Nacional vs Estoril BTTS -1% 2–0 MISS