About PredictVantage

PredictVantage publishes free, data-driven football predictions across 240+ leagues worldwide. Our goal is simple: turn raw match statistics into clear, honest probabilities — and show our track record openly.

How the model works

At its core is a Poisson goals model. For each fixture we estimate each team's expected goals from their attacking and defensive strength relative to their league, then derive probabilities for every scoreline and market (1X2, Over/Under, Both Teams To Score, correct score).

The model layers several refinements on top:

• Per-league baselines — goal averages and home advantage computed per competition, not a single global value.
• Dixon-Coles correction — adjusts the low-score outcomes that a plain Poisson model misprices.
• Recent form — a points-per-game blend so current form nudges the estimate.
• Probability calibration — model probabilities are calibrated against real historical results.
• Expected value — we compare our probabilities to live bookmaker odds to flag value bets.

Honesty & track record

Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. A 65% pick still loses about a third of the time — that's expected. Rather than hide misses, we track and publish our accuracy on the Accuracy page so you can judge the model for yourself.

Data sources

We use publicly available football statistics and live bookmaker odds, refreshed daily through an automated pipeline. We are independent and not operated by any bookmaker.

Important

This is an information and entertainment site, not betting advice — please see our Terms of Use and Responsible Gambling page. 18+ only.