Primera División

COSTA RICA · 7 MATCHES TRACKED · 18 APR 2026 – 26 APR 2026

● LOW SAMPLE

FEWER THAN 10 SETTLED PICKS — NO VERDICT YET

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 7 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

71.4%

1X2

5/7

57.1%

O/U 2.5

4/7

71.4%

BTTS

5/7

57.1%

Exact score

4/7

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

57.1%

Hit rate

4/7

1.68

Avg odds

-5.7%

ROI

-0.4u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

BTTS · N=4 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.75 · -12.5% ROI

HOME WIN · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.39 · -42.5% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.95 · +95.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

100%

Hit

+95.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

100%

Hit

+83.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

50%

Hit

-16.5%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

33%

Hit

-61.7%

ROI

Match log

7 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

April 2026 // 7 PICKS · 4 HIT · 3 MISS

26 APR Herediano vs Sporting SJ Home +6% 0–0 MISS 26 APR Guadalupe vs Cartagines BTTS -3% 0–5 MISS 26 APR M. Liberia vs Alajuelense BTTS -4% 2–1 HIT 26 APR Puntarenas vs Saprissa Over 2.5 +15% 1–3 HIT 23 APR Saprissa vs Guadalupe Home -1% 5–0 HIT 19 APR Alajuelense vs Saprissa BTTS -8% 1–1 HIT 18 APR Guadalupe vs Zeledon BTTS -4% 1–0 MISS