Today's Best Value Bets (July 22)

// 27 +EV BETS · WED JUL 22 · ALL MARKETS SCANNED · EV ≥ +5% · RANKED BY EV

WED, JUL 22

A value bet is a bet where the bookmaker's implied probability is lower than our model's estimated probability — meaning the odds are in your favour on a statistical basis. Expected value (EV) measures that edge: a +10% EV means for every £100 staked, the model expects £110 back over the long run. The picks below are today's matches and markets where that edge is largest, ranked by expected value across all available markets (home win, draw, away win, Over 2.5, BTTS and more). Value betting is a long-run strategy — individual bets will lose, but positive EV compounds over time. Stake responsibly.

EVTimeMatch Value market Prob / OddsResult

+428.0%#1 01:00

Cruz Azul vs Puebla

MEXICO - LIGA MX

Away win 66.0%@ 8.00 2–1 MISS +100.0%#2 18:00

Blumenau vs Nação

BRAZIL - CATARINENSE - 2

Away + O2.5 8.6%@ 31.00 PENDING +59.3%#3 23:00

Portland Hearts of Pine vs Union Omaha

USA - USL LEAGUE ONE

Home + O2.5 33.9%@ 4.70 PENDING +58.7%#4 10:15

Launceston City vs Launceston United

AUSTRALIA - NPL TASMANIA

Away + O2.5 8.6%@ 23.00 4–2 MISS +57.0%#5 17:00

Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam

NORWAY - ELITESERIEN

Away + O2.5 7.5%@ 26.00 3–0 MISS +48.4%#6 21:30

Independiente del Valle vs Tecnico Universitario

ECUADOR - LIGA PRO

Away + O2.5 8.6%@ 21.00 PENDING +48.0%#7 23:00

Westchester SC vs NY Cosmos

USA - USL LEAGUE ONE

Home + O2.5 59.2%@ 2.50 PENDING +46.3%#8 15:00

Kokand-1912 vs Olmaliq

UZBEKISTAN - SUPER LEAGUE

Home + O2.5 25.3%@ 7.00 1–4 MISS +40.0%#9 22:30

Coritiba vs Palmeiras

BRAZIL - SERIE A

Home O1.5 35.0%@ 4.00 PENDING +40.0%#10 23:30

FC Cincinnati vs Vancouver Whitecaps

USA - MLS

Home + O2.5 31.1%@ 4.50 PENDING +39.8%#11 22:30

Ceara vs CRB

BRAZIL - SERIE B

Over 3.5 36.8%@ 3.80 PENDING +34.7%#12 00:35

Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC

BRAZIL - SERIE B

Home + O2.5 31.1%@ 4.33 2–1 HIT +27.5%#13 22:30

Operario-PR vs Ponte Preta

BRAZIL - SERIE B

Over 3.5 37.5%@ 3.40 PENDING +26.3%#14 16:00

PKKU vs VJS

FINLAND - YKKONEN

Home + O2.5 37.8%@ 3.34 1–3 MISS +24.7%#15 03:05

Toluca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas

MEXICO - LIGA MX

Home win 73.8%@ 1.69 1–2 MISS +22.1%#16 15:00

Lokomotiv vs Andijan

UZBEKISTAN - SUPER LEAGUE

Home + BTTS 22.8%@ 6.00 3–3 MISS +19.4%#17 23:00

Lexington vs Oakland Roots

USA - USL CHAMPIONSHIP

Away O1.5 41.9%@ 2.85 PENDING +16.6%#18 10:30

Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC

SOUTH KOREA - K LEAGUE 1

Home O1.5 33.3%@ 3.50 1–1 MISS +16.5%#19 23:30

Goias vs Sport Recife

BRAZIL - SERIE B

Away O1.5 36.4%@ 3.20 PENDING +15.2%#20 10:30

Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Anyang

SOUTH KOREA - K LEAGUE 1

Away O1.5 41.9%@ 2.75 2–3 HIT +11.9%#21 23:30

Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls

USA - MLS

Away O1.5 47.0%@ 2.38 PENDING +11.8%#22 10:30

FC Seoul vs Pohang Steelers

SOUTH KOREA - K LEAGUE 1

Over 3.5 28.5%@ 4.20 3–1 HIT +11.7%#23 23:30

New England Revolution vs Toronto FC

USA - MLS

Over 3.5 39.9%@ 2.80 PENDING +10.2%#24 17:00

Lillestrom vs Viking

NORWAY - ELITESERIEN

Home + O2.5 29.6%@ 3.95 1–2 MISS +8.4%#25 19:00

Macara vs Deportivo Cuenca

ECUADOR - LIGA PRO

Home + BTTS 22.8%@ 5.00 PENDING +1.9%#26 22:00

River Plate Res. vs Barracas Central Res.

ARGENTINA - RESERVE LEAGUE

Away O1.5 19.1%@ 5.40 PENDING +1.2%#27 19:00

Timon MA vs Araioses

BRAZIL - MARANHENSE - 2

Home O1.5 33.3%@ 3.04 PENDING

// A +40% EV BET AT ODDS 3.40 STILL LOSES ~60% OF THE TIME — THIS IS NORMAL. THE EDGE IS REAL ONLY ACROSS VOLUME.

Frequently asked questions

What is a value bet?

A value bet is a bet where the bookmaker's implied probability is lower than your own estimated probability. If a bookmaker prices a team's win at 2.50 (implied 40%) but your model gives that team a 50% chance, the bet has positive expected value — the odds are mathematically in your favour.

How is expected value (EV) calculated?

EV = (model probability × decimal odds) − 1. For example, if our model gives 55% probability and the odds are 2.00: EV = (0.55 × 2.00) − 1 = +10%. A positive EV means the bet is profitable in expectation over many repetitions.

Are these value bet picks free?

Yes — all predictions on PredictVantage are completely free. We scan every available market (1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS and combinations) across 240+ leagues daily and surface the bets with the highest positive EV at no cost.

Does a positive EV guarantee a win?

No — EV is a long-run metric. Any individual bet can lose regardless of EV. A +15% EV bet still loses 45%+ of the time. The edge only materialises over a large sample of bets. Treat value bets as a long-term strategy, not a single-match guarantee.

What EV threshold do you use?

We show all bets where our model's probability exceeds the bookmaker's implied probability (positive EV) and the odds fall within our value range (1.30–6.00). The list is ranked by EV so the highest-edge bets appear first.