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Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 18:00

Rayo Vallecano

PPG 1.53 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Espanyol

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-17.9%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.5%1-112.1%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.3%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.2%3-14.7%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 50.0% 2.00 +4.0%

Draw 25.8% 31.3% 3.20 -17.4%

Away win 22.2% 25.6% 3.90 -13.4%

Over 2.5 43.8% 47.6% 2.10 -8.0%

Over 3.5 22.7% 26.3% 3.80 -13.7%

BTTS 46.5% 54.1% 1.85 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.5%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 13.5%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rayo Vallecano1.5

Espanyol0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.8% · O3.5 PROB 22.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RAYO VALLECANO · PPG 1.53

ESPANYOL · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Rayo Vallecano (H) 52.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +4.0%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -17.4%

Espanyol (A) 22.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rayo Vallecano face Espanyol in Spain - La Liga on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rayo Vallecano a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Espanyol 22%, so Rayo Vallecano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Rayo Vallecano and 0.9 for Espanyol (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.06 for Espanyol. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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