Pro League

SAUDI ARABIA · 55 MATCHES TRACKED · 14 APR 2026 – 21 MAY 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 54 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

59.3%

1X2

32/54

55.6%

O/U 2.5

30/54

55.6%

BTTS

30/54

50.0%

Exact score

27/54

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

64.2%

Hit rate

34/53

1.50

Avg odds

-6.2%

ROI

-3.3u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

BTTS · N=24 58.3% HIT · AVG 1.58 · -9.2% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=18 55.6% HIT · AVG 1.53 · -14.8% ROI

HOME WIN · N=8 87.5% HIT · AVG 1.23 · +3.9% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=3 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.42 · +42.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

67%

Hit

+16.7%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

57%

Hit

-26.1%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

86%

Hit

+34.1%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

61%

Hit

-12.1%

ROI

Match log

54 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 15 PICKS · 8 HIT · 7 MISS

21 MAY Al Feiha vs Al Hilal Away -23% 0–1 HIT 21 MAY Neom SC vs Al Ittifaq BTTS -12% 1–1 HIT 21 MAY Al Riyadh vs Al Akhdoud BTTS -12% 1–0 MISS 21 MAY Al Nassr vs Damak Home -26% 4–1 HIT 21 MAY Al Kholood vs Al Fateh BTTS -13% 0–0 MISS 21 MAY Al Ittihad vs Al Quadisiya BTTS -18% 1–5 HIT 21 MAY Al Hazm vs Al Taawon BTTS -7% 2–0 MISS 20 MAY Al Khaleej vs Al Ahli Jeddah Over 2.5 -8% 1–4 HIT 20 MAY Al Najma vs Al Shabab BTTS -3% 1–0 MISS 17 MAY Al Shabab vs Al Ittihad Over 2.5 -8% 3–2 HIT 16 MAY Al Hilal vs Neom SC Over 2.5 -15% 2–0 MISS 16 MAY Al Akhdoud vs Al Khaleej Over 2.5 -1% 3–1 HIT 16 MAY Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood Home -20% 3–0 HIT 15 MAY Damak vs Al Feiha BTTS -1% 3–0 MISS 15 MAY Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh Over 2.5 +8% 1–1 MISS