La Liga
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
Upcoming La Liga predictions
DateMatchPickProbOddsEV
3 SEPT19:00 Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo BTTS 55% 1.75 -5%4 SEPT19:00 Real Betis vs Real Madrid Over 2.5 60% 1.38 -18%// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 92 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
51.1%
1X2
47/92
59.8%
O/U 2.5
55/92
58.7%
BTTS
54/92
52.2%
Exact score
48/92
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
31
Settled
51.6%
Hit rate
16/31
1.96
Avg odds
-2.3%
ROI
-0.7u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=10 70.0% HIT · AVG 1.92 · +28.1% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=8 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.95 · -4.0% ROI
BTTS · N=8 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.97 · -0.5% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=3 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.01 · -100.0% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 2.10 · -8.5% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
6
Bets
50%
Hit
-2.7%
ROI
✓ Solid
5
Bets
80%
Hit
+48.6%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
17
Bets
41%
Hit
-18.8%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
3
Bets
67%
Hit
+7.0%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 12 PICKS · 8 HIT · 4 MISS
31 AUG Osasuna vs Getafe Home +11% 1–0 HIT31 AUG Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano HO1.5 5–2 HIT30 AUG Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club HO1.5 0–2 MISS29 AUG Levante vs Real Betis — NO PICK 5–2 —29 AUG Real Sociedad vs Espanyol BTTS -8% 2–1 HIT29 AUG Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid BTTS -5% 1–3 HIT28 AUG Alaves vs Villarreal Over 2.5 +7% 1–0 MISS27 AUG Celta Vigo vs Osasuna — NO PICK 1–2 —27 AUG Barcelona vs Athletic Club HO1.5 2–0 HIT26 AUG Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad HO1.5 4–1 HIT25 AUG Valencia vs Real Betis — NO PICK 0–1 —24 AUG Osasuna vs Levante Home +8% 0–0 MISS23 AUG Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal HO1.5 2–2 HIT23 AUG Elche vs Barcelona BTTS -7% 0–5 MISS22 AUG Athletic Club vs Sevilla BTTS +11% 1–3 HIT