La Liga
▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE
MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 70 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
51.4%
1X2
36/70
60.0%
O/U 2.5
42/70
64.3%
BTTS
45/70
55.7%
Exact score
39/70
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
61
Settled
68.9%
Hit rate
42/61
1.72
Avg odds
+15.1%
ROI
+9.2u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=32 68.8% HIT · AVG 1.68 · +15.3% ROI
HOME WIN · N=14 85.7% HIT · AVG 1.74 · +41.2% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=11 63.6% HIT · AVG 1.73 · +8.2% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=4 25.0% HIT · AVG 1.92 · -58.8% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
8
Bets
63%
Hit
+12.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
4
Bets
75%
Hit
+31.3%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
12
Bets
50%
Hit
-10.7%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
37
Bets
76%
Hit
+22.4%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 12 PICKS · 9 HIT · 3 MISS
24 MAY Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid BTTS -16% 5–1 HIT23 MAY Valencia vs FC Barcelona Away +14% 3–1 MISS23 MAY Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Home -12% 4–2 HIT23 MAY Real Betis vs Levante Over 2.5 -11% 2–1 HIT23 MAY Mallorca vs Real Oviedo Home -24% 3–0 HIT23 MAY Girona vs Elche BTTS -15% 1–1 HIT23 MAY Getafe vs Osasuna — NO PICK 1–0 —23 MAY Espanyol vs Real Sociedad BTTS -13% 1–1 HIT23 MAY Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano — NO PICK 1–2 —23 MAY Celta Vigo vs Sevilla FC BTTS +1% 1–0 MISS17 MAY Atletico Madrid vs Girona Home -7% 1–0 HIT17 MAY Athletic Bilbao vs Celta Vigo BTTS -6% 1–1 HIT17 MAY Sevilla FC vs Real Madrid Over 2.5 -2% 0–1 MISS17 MAY Real Sociedad vs Valencia BTTS -10% 3–4 HIT17 MAY Real Oviedo vs Alaves — NO PICK 0–1 —