Eredivisie

NETHERLANDS · 32 MATCHES TRACKED · 22 APR 2026 – 17 MAY 2026

▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE

MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 31 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

54.8%

1X2

17/31

64.5%

O/U 2.5

20/31

67.7%

BTTS

21/31

54.8%

Exact score

17/31

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

71.0%

Hit rate

22/31

1.45

Avg odds

+2.7%

ROI

+0.8u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

OVER 2.5 · N=18 55.6% HIT · AVG 1.43 · -21.6% ROI

BTTS · N=12 91.7% HIT · AVG 1.45 · +33.3% ROI

HOME WIN · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.75 · +75.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

✓ Solid

Bets

50%

Hit

-34.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

80%

Hit

+20.6%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

73%

Hit

+5.4%

ROI

Match log

31 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 15 PICKS · 12 HIT · 3 MISS

17 MAY AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda Over 2.5 -15% 3–3 HIT 17 MAY Sparta vs Excelsior BTTS -15% 2–3 HIT 17 MAY PSV Eindhoven vs FC Twente Over 2.5 -15% 5–1 HIT 17 MAY PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord Over 2.5 -12% 0–2 MISS 17 MAY NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles Over 2.5 -17% 2–1 HIT 17 MAY Heracles Almelo vs FC Groningen Over 2.5 -15% 1–2 HIT 17 MAY FC Volendam vs Telstar BTTS -21% 1–2 HIT 17 MAY FC Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard Over 2.5 -14% 2–0 MISS 10 MAY Excelsior vs FC Volendam BTTS -16% 1–1 HIT 10 MAY FC Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen BTTS -14% 2–1 HIT 10 MAY FC Twente vs Sparta Over 2.5 -18% 4–0 HIT 10 MAY Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar Over 2.5 -14% 1–1 MISS 10 MAY Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle BTTS -10% 3–2 HIT 10 MAY Go Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven BTTS -14% 1–4 HIT 10 MAY Telstar vs Heracles Almelo Over 2.5 -15% 3–0 HIT