Leagues / RUSSIA / Premier League
Premier League
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 78 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
43.6%
1X2
34/78
51.3%
O/U 2.5
40/78
51.3%
BTTS
40/78
59.0%
Exact score
46/78
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
24
Settled
45.8%
Hit rate
11/24
1.91
Avg odds
-15.8%
ROI
-3.8u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=9 77.8% HIT · AVG 1.88 · +47.6% ROI
HOME WIN · N=8 25.0% HIT · AVG 1.97 · -57.4% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=4 25.0% HIT · AVG 1.98 · -54.8% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.70 · -43.3% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
3
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
4
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
15
Bets
67%
Hit
+21.1%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
2
Bets
50%
Hit
+1.5%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 14 PICKS · 6 HIT · 8 MISS
30 AUG Spartak Moscow vs FC Orenburg Home -25% 1–1 MISS30 AUG Rubin vs Dinamo Makhachkala BTTS +12% 3–1 HIT29 AUG FC Krasnodar vs FC Rostov HO1.5 1–0 MISS29 AUG Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov Home -0% 3–3 MISS29 AUG Lokomotiv vs Dynamo BTTS -17% 0–1 MISS28 AUG Akron vs CSKA Moscow BTTS -17% 2–2 HIT24 AUG Baltika vs Rubin Over 2.5 +19% 1–1 MISS23 AUG Akron vs Krylia Sovetov BTTS -13% 0–3 MISS23 AUG Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar BTTS +4% 0–1 MISS23 AUG Spartak Moscow vs Zenit BTTS -7% 2–0 MISS22 AUG Akhmat vs FC Rostov — NO PICK 4–1 —22 AUG CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv Home -3% 3–2 HIT16 AUG Zenit vs Dynamo HO1.5 3–0 HIT16 AUG Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala BTTS -3% 1–4 HIT16 AUG Baltika vs Spartak Moscow BTTS -5% 1–2 HIT