I Liga
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
Upcoming I Liga predictions
DateMatchPickProbOddsEV
4 SEPT16:00 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Warta Poznań BTTS 60% 1.50 -10%4 SEPT19:00 Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdansk BTTS 61% 1.50 -9%// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 66 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
50.0%
1X2
33/66
54.5%
O/U 2.5
36/66
54.5%
BTTS
36/66
51.5%
Exact score
34/66
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
24
Settled
50.0%
Hit rate
12/24
1.76
Avg odds
-10.9%
ROI
-2.6u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=10 80.0% HIT · AVG 1.70 · +34.2% ROI
HOME WIN · N=7 28.6% HIT · AVG 1.93 · -36.4% ROI
BTTS · N=5 40.0% HIT · AVG 1.68 · -29.6% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=2 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.72 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
3
Bets
33%
Hit
-28.3%
ROI
✓ Solid
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-17.5%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
11
Bets
64%
Hit
+13.3%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
8
Bets
38%
Hit
-35.9%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 13 PICKS · 5 HIT · 8 MISS
30 AUG Chrobry Głogów vs Ruch Chorzów — NO PICK 2–0 —29 AUG Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec BTTS -5% 2–0 MISS28 AUG Odra Opole vs ŁKS Łódź BTTS -2% 0–0 MISS24 AUG Stal Rzeszów vs Ruch Chorzów BTTS -16% 0–1 MISS23 AUG ŁKS Łódź vs Stal Mielec Over 2.5 +5% 4–0 HIT22 AUG Polonia Bytom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Over 2.5 -3% 2–2 HIT16 AUG Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom Over 2.5 -6% 5–2 HIT15 AUG Pogoń Siedlce vs Polonia Warszawa BTTS -16% 1–0 MISS14 AUG Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Rzeszów Home +13% 1–1 MISS9 AUG ŁKS Łódź vs Chrobry Głogów BTTS +1% 1–2 HIT8 AUG Stal Mielec vs Stal Rzeszów HO1.5 1–1 MISS8 AUG Miedz Legnica vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki BTTS -18% 0–1 MISS8 AUG Puszcza Niepołomice vs Odra Opole — NO PICK 3–1 —7 AUG Polonia Bytom vs Pogoń Siedlce Over 2.5 +8% 2–2 HIT7 AUG Polonia Warszawa vs Ruch Chorzów HO1.5 1–1 MISS