I Liga
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 47 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
53.2%
1X2
25/47
59.6%
O/U 2.5
28/47
59.6%
BTTS
28/47
46.8%
Exact score
22/47
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
40
Settled
57.5%
Hit rate
23/40
1.67
Avg odds
-4.2%
ROI
-1.7u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=20 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.66 · -18.6% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=12 75.0% HIT · AVG 1.60 · +20.2% ROI
HOME WIN · N=8 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.80 · -4.6% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
50%
Hit
+7.5%
ROI
✓ Solid
1
Bets
100%
Hit
+65.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
6
Bets
50%
Hit
-6.3%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
31
Bets
58%
Hit
-6.7%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 15 PICKS · 12 HIT · 3 MISS
24 MAY Wisla Krakow vs Pogon Siedlce Home -20% 2–0 HIT24 MAY Znicz Pruszkow vs Ruch Chorzow Over 2.5 +4% 3–2 HIT24 MAY Wieczysta K. vs Chrobry Glogow BTTS -3% 1–1 HIT24 MAY Tychy vs Stal Rzeszow Over 2.5 -8% 3–3 HIT24 MAY Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom Over 2.5 -2% 4–1 HIT24 MAY Odra Opole vs Polonia Warszaw BTTS -12% 1–2 HIT24 MAY Miedz Legnica vs Puszcza Niepolo BTTS -10% 2–1 HIT18 MAY Puszcza Niepolo vs LKS Lodz BTTS +1% 1–0 MISS17 MAY Miedz Legnica vs Ruch Chorzow BTTS -0% 1–2 HIT17 MAY Polonia Bytom vs Slask Wroclaw Over 2.5 +5% 1–3 HIT16 MAY Gornik Leczna vs Odra Opole BTTS -10% 0–2 MISS16 MAY Stal Rzeszow vs Wieczysta K. Over 2.5 -14% 1–5 HIT16 MAY Chrobry Glogow vs Znicz Pruszkow Home -2% 3–2 HIT15 MAY Pogon Siedlce vs Stal Mielec BTTS -12% 1–3 HIT15 MAY Polonia Warszaw vs Wisla Krakow Over 2.5 -9% 0–1 MISS