| Grade | Bets | Hit% | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 2 | 50.0% | −3750.0% |
| F | 4 | 75.0% | +2900.0% |
| Unrated | 2 | 50.0% | −4150.0% |
| Market | Bets | Hit% | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over2.5 | 3 | 66.7% | +1433.0% |
| Home | 2 | 100.0% | +2100.0% |
| BTTS | 2 | 50.0% | −1350.0% |
| Away | 1 | 0.0% | −10000.0% |
| Verdict | Bets | Hit% | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned | Best EV: Home @33% | 1 | 0.0% | −10000.0% |
| 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned | Best EV: Home @9% | 1 | 100.0% | +2500.0% |
| ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value | 1 | 100.0% | +1700.0% |
| ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | Best EV: Over2.5 @21% | 1 | 100.0% | +7300.0% |
| ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value | 1 | 0.0% | −10000.0% |
| ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV... | 1 | 0.0% | −10000.0% |
| ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | Best EV: Home @12% | 1 | 100.0% | +7300.0% |
| ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned | Best EV: Home @48% | 1 | 100.0% | +7000.0% |
| Date | Match | Pick | Odds | Result | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 May | Zaqatala vs Safa | Away | -14% EV | 2-1 | MISS |
| 22 May | Sahdag vs Baku Sporting | — | — | 1-1 | — |
| 22 May | Mingachevir vs Sebail | BTTS | -7% EV | 4-1 | HIT |
| 21 May | MOIK vs Difai Agsu | Over 2.5 | -8% EV | 4-0 | HIT |
| 21 May | Cebrayil vs Simal | Over 2.5 | 9% EV | 2-3 | HIT |
| 15 May | Sebail vs Sahdag | Home | -18% EV | 0-0 | MISS |
| 15 May | Baku Sporting vs Zaqatala | Home | — | 3-0 | HIT |
| 15 May | Mingachevir vs MOIK | Over 2.5 | -4% EV | 3-1 | HIT |
| 14 May | Simal vs Difai Agsu | BTTS | -13% EV | 0-1 | MISS |
| 7 May | Cebrayil vs Baku Sporting | Over 2.5 | -2% EV | 2-3 | HIT |
| 6 May | Simal vs MOIK | BTTS | -13% EV | 1-1 | HIT |
| 6 May | Zaqatala vs Sebail | Away | -10% EV | 0-3 | HIT |
| 6 May | Difai Agsu vs Safa | Away | — | 0-0 | MISS |
| 5 May | Sahdag vs Mingachevir | BTTS | 7% EV | 2-0 | MISS |
| 30 Apr | Baku Sporting vs Difai Agsu | Home | -19% EV | 1-1 | MISS |
| 30 Apr | Sebail vs Cebrayil | Home | -21% EV | 6-0 | HIT |
| 29 Apr | MOIK vs Sahdag | BTTS | — | 0-1 | MISS |
| 29 Apr | Mingachevir vs Zaqatala | Home | -26% EV | 7-1 | HIT |
| 23 Apr | Simal vs Baku Sporting | Away | 1% EV | 1-0 | MISS |
| 23 Apr | Difai Agsu vs Sebail | Away | -5% EV | 0-4 | HIT |
| 22 Apr | Safa vs MOIK | Home | — | 3-0 | HIT |
| 22 Apr | Zaqatala vs Sahdag | — | — | 0-1 | — |
| 22 Apr | Cebrayil vs Mingachevir | Over 2.5 | 21% EV | 2-1 | HIT |
| 16 Apr | Mingachevir vs Difai Agsu | Home | 9% EV | 2-1 | HIT |
| 16 Apr | Baku Sporting vs Safa | BTTS | — | 0-0 | MISS |
| 16 Apr | Sebail vs Simal | Home | 2% EV | 4-0 | HIT |
| 15 Apr | Sahdag vs Cebrayil | Over 2.5 | 19% EV | 0-0 | MISS |
| 15 Apr | MOIK vs Zaqatala | — | — | 2-1 | — |