Leagues / AZERBAIJAN / Birinci Dasta
Birinci Dasta
● LOW SAMPLE
FEWER THAN 10 SETTLED PICKS — NO VERDICT YET
Upcoming Birinci Dasta predictions
DateMatchPickProbOddsEV
4 SEPT13:00 Şimal vs Cəbrayıl BTTS 56% 1.67 -7%4 SEPT13:00 Mingəçevir vs Zaqatala BTTS 56% 1.80 +1%// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 30 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
50.0%
1X2
15/30
56.7%
O/U 2.5
17/30
46.7%
BTTS
14/30
36.7%
Exact score
11/30
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
9
Settled
44.4%
Hit rate
4/9
1.57
Avg odds
-35.0%
ROI
-3.1u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.66 · +14.3% ROI
BTTS · N=3 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.82 · -100.0% ROI
HOME WIN · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.21 · +21.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.25 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-37.5%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
3
Bets
33%
Hit
-42.3%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
4
Bets
50%
Hit
-28.3%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
September 2026 // 2 PICKS · 0 HIT · 2 MISS
3 SEPT MOIK vs Şahdağ BTTS +1% 0–1 MISS3 SEPT Baku Sportinq vs Karvan BTTS +5% 0–3 MISSMay 2026 // 12 PICKS · 8 HIT · 4 MISS
22 MAY Zaqatala vs Safa Away -14% 2–1 MISS22 MAY Sahdag vs Baku Sporting — NO PICK 1–1 —22 MAY Mingachevir vs Sebail BTTS -7% 4–1 HIT21 MAY Cebrayil vs Simal Over 2.5 +9% 2–3 HIT21 MAY MOIK vs Difai Agsu Over 2.5 -8% 4–0 HIT15 MAY Sebail vs Sahdag Home -18% 0–0 MISS15 MAY Baku Sporting vs Zaqatala Home 3–0 HIT15 MAY Mingachevir vs MOIK Over 2.5 -4% 3–1 HIT14 MAY Simal vs Difai Agsu BTTS -13% 0–1 MISS7 MAY Cebrayil vs Baku Sporting Over 2.5 -2% 2–3 HIT6 MAY Difai Agsu vs Safa Away 0–0 MISS6 MAY Simal vs MOIK BTTS -13% 1–1 HIT6 MAY Zaqatala vs Sebail Away -10% 0–3 HIT