Birinci Dasta

AZERBAIJAN · 28 MATCHES TRACKED · 15 APR 2026 – 22 MAY 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 28 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

53.6%

1X2

15/28

57.1%

O/U 2.5

16/28

50.0%

BTTS

14/28

39.3%

Exact score

11/28

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

65.0%

Hit rate

13/20

1.51

Avg odds

-1.1%

ROI

-0.2u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

OVER 2.5 · N=6 83.3% HIT · AVG 1.67 · +40.8% ROI

HOME WIN · N=6 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.32 · -15.3% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=4 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.38 · -28.5% ROI

BTTS · N=4 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.71 · -15.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

50%

Hit

-37.5%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

100%

Hit

+33.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

100%

Hit

+73.0%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

60%

Hit

-5.7%

ROI

Match log

28 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 13 PICKS · 8 HIT · 5 MISS

22 MAY Zaqatala vs Safa Away -14% 2–1 MISS 22 MAY Sahdag vs Baku Sporting — NO PICK 1–1 —22 MAY Mingachevir vs Sebail BTTS -7% 4–1 HIT 21 MAY Cebrayil vs Simal Over 2.5 +9% 2–3 HIT 21 MAY MOIK vs Difai Agsu Over 2.5 -8% 4–0 HIT 15 MAY Mingachevir vs MOIK Over 2.5 -4% 3–1 HIT 15 MAY Sebail vs Sahdag Home -18% 0–0 MISS 15 MAY Baku Sporting vs Zaqatala Home 3–0 HIT 14 MAY Simal vs Difai Agsu BTTS -13% 0–1 MISS 7 MAY Cebrayil vs Baku Sporting Over 2.5 -2% 2–3 HIT 6 MAY Simal vs MOIK BTTS -13% 1–1 HIT 6 MAY Zaqatala vs Sebail Away -10% 0–3 HIT 6 MAY Difai Agsu vs Safa Away 0–0 MISS 5 MAY Sahdag vs Mingachevir BTTS +7% 2–0 MISS

April 2026 // 1 PICK · 0 HIT · 1 MISS

30 APR Baku Sporting vs Difai Agsu Home -19% 1–1 MISS