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Los Chankas vs Cienciano Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 10 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 20:00

Los Chankas

PPG 3.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Cienciano

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 85.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+53.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.2%0-20.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-02.9%1-14.1%1-22.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.7%2 2-04.8%2-16.9%2-24.9%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.3%3-17.6%3-25.4%3-32.6%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-010.2%4+-114.5%4+-210.3%4+-34.9%4+-4+2.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.9% 41.3% 2.42 +78.8%

Draw 13.4% 29.4% 3.40 -54.4%

Away win 12.8% 36.2% 2.76 -64.7%

Over 2.5 85.1% 55.6% 1.80 +53.2%

Over 3.5 69.6% 33.9% 2.95 +105.3%

BTTS 73.1% 62.5% 1.60 +17.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 82%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob73.1%

H 74% / xG 3.3-1.4 / O2.5 85% / BTTS 73%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.6%

#2 2–1 6.9%

#3 4–1 6.3%

#4 3–2 5.4%

#5 3–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Los Chankas3.3

Cienciano1.4

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 85.1% · O3.5 PROB 69.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LOS CHANKAS · PPG 3.00

CIENCIANO · PPG 1.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away GOOD (1.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Los Chankas (H) 73.9%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV +78.8%

Draw 13.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -54.4%

Cienciano (A) 12.8%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV -64.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Los Chankas face Cienciano in Peru - Primera División on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Chankas a 74% chance, the draw 13% and Cienciano 13%, so Los Chankas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Los Chankas and 1.4 for Cienciano (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 85% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Chankas are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Cienciano. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +105.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Los Chankas vs Cienciano Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions