Simal vs Baku Sporting Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

Simal face Baku Sporting in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Simal a 6% chance, the draw 14% and Baku Sporting 81%, so Baku Sporting are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Simal and 2.5 for Baku Sporting (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Simal are averaging 0.55 points per game versus 1.90 for Baku Sporting. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.0%. This match finished 1-0.