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Simal vs Baku Sporting Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 23 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 12:00

Simal

PPG 0.55 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Baku Sporting

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 80.8% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-112.5%0-215.5%0-312.9%0-4+14.5%1 1-02.5%1-16.3%1-27.8%1-36.5%1-4+7.3%2 2-00.6%2-11.6%2-22.0%2-31.6%2-4+1.8%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 5.6% 10.0% 10.00 -44.0%

Draw 13.6% 21.7% 4.60 -37.4%

Away win 80.8% 80.0% 1.25 +1.0%

Over 2.5 57.5% 62.5% 1.60 -8.0%

Over 3.5 35.1% — — —

BTTS 36.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob36.3%

A 81% / xG 0.5-2.5 / O2.5 57% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 15.5%

#2 0–3 12.9%

#3 0–1 12.5%

#4 0–4 8.0%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Simal0.5

Baku Sporting2.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.5% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SIMAL · PPG 0.55

BAKU SPORTING · PPG 1.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.90) vs Home POOR (0.55)

Win probability 1X2

Simal (H) 5.6%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV -44.0%

Draw 13.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -37.4%

Baku Sporting (A) 80.8%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV +1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Simal face Baku Sporting in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Simal a 6% chance, the draw 14% and Baku Sporting 81%, so Baku Sporting are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Simal and 2.5 for Baku Sporting (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Simal are averaging 0.55 points per game versus 1.90 for Baku Sporting. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Simal vs Baku Sporting Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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