Virsliga
▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE
MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 100 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
63.0%
1X2
63/100
61.0%
O/U 2.5
61/100
55.0%
BTTS
55/100
55.0%
Exact score
55/100
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
25
Settled
72.0%
Hit rate
18/25
1.74
Avg odds
+20.6%
ROI
+5.1u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=16 75.0% HIT · AVG 1.69 · +27.9% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 2.27 · -44.3% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.54 · -2.3% ROI
BTTS · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.74 · +73.5% ROI
HOME WIN · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.60 · +60.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
1
Bets
100%
Hit
+67.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
4
Bets
100%
Hit
+53.3%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
13
Bets
62%
Hit
+6.4%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
7
Bets
71%
Hit
+21.6%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 15 PICKS · 10 HIT · 5 MISS
31 AUG FK Liepaja vs Riga Over 2.5 +2% 3–2 HIT30 AUG Ogre United vs Rīgas FS AO1.5 0–3 HIT29 AUG Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils Over 2.5 -7% 1–0 MISS29 AUG Tukums vs FS Jelgava Over 2.5 +9% 1–4 HIT29 AUG Auda vs Super Nova Home -21% 1–1 MISS25 AUG Auda vs FK Liepaja HO1.5 1–0 MISS23 AUG Rīgas FS vs Riga Over 2.5 +9% 3–3 HIT22 AUG Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils BTTS -14% 0–0 MISS22 AUG Ogre United vs FS Jelgava BTTS -8% 2–3 HIT21 AUG Auda vs Tukums HO1.5 3–0 HIT21 AUG FK Liepaja vs Grobiņa Home +2% 3–1 HIT10 AUG Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa Home -14% 6–1 HIT9 AUG FS Jelgava vs Auda Over 2.5 -7% 0–1 MISS9 AUG Super Nova vs FK Liepaja BTTS -14% 1–2 HIT9 AUG Riga vs Ogre United Home -14% 4–1 HIT