Virsliga
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 75 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
62.7%
1X2
47/75
62.7%
O/U 2.5
47/75
60.0%
BTTS
45/75
53.3%
Exact score
40/75
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
63
Settled
66.7%
Hit rate
42/63
1.54
Avg odds
-1.8%
ROI
-1.1u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=22 68.2% HIT · AVG 1.64 · +11.8% ROI
BTTS · N=17 58.8% HIT · AVG 1.70 · -1.7% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=8 62.5% HIT · AVG 1.66 · -17.8% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=8 87.5% HIT · AVG 1.21 · +3.5% ROI
HOME WIN · N=6 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.19 · -23.5% ROI
AWAY O1.5 · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.18 · -42.5% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
1
Bets
100%
Hit
+67.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
14
Bets
86%
Hit
+8.3%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
13
Bets
54%
Hit
-5.2%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
35
Bets
63%
Hit
-6.4%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
July 2026 // 8 PICKS · 6 HIT · 2 MISS
19 JUL Ogre United vs Daugavpils BTTS 0–4 MISS18 JUL Riga FC vs Tukums HO1.5 3–1 HIT6 JUL Super Nova vs Ogre United Over 2.5 +13% 1–2 HIT5 JUL Grobina vs Tukums BTTS -8% 3–1 HIT4 JUL Daugavpils vs Liepaja BTTS -19% 3–1 HIT4 JUL RFS vs Auda HO1.5 1–1 MISS3 JUL Riga FC vs FS Jelgava HO1.5 3–0 HIT1 JUL Tukums vs Super Nova BTTS +6% 1–2 HITJune 2026 // 6 PICKS · 3 HIT · 3 MISS
30 JUN RFS vs Daugavpils Home -16% 3–1 HIT30 JUN Liepaja vs Ogre United Over 2.5 -4% 4–0 HIT29 JUN FS Jelgava vs Grobina — NO PICK 2–0 —29 JUN Auda vs Riga FC Over 2.5 -2% 0–2 MISS26 JUN Ogre United vs Tukums Over 2.5 +9% 3–2 HIT26 JUN Liepaja vs RFS Over 2.5 -5% 0–2 MISS25 JUN Grobina vs Auda Away -15% 1–0 MISS