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Difai Agsu vs Sebail Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 23 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 12:00

Difai Agsu

PPG 0.73 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Sebail

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 71.7% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-110.3%0-211.9%0-39.2%0-4+9.3%1 1-03.5%1-18.2%1-29.5%1-37.4%1-4+7.4%2 2-01.4%2-13.2%2-23.8%2-32.9%2-4+2.9%3 3-00.4%3-10.9%3-21.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.1% 13.5% 7.40 -17.9%

Draw 17.2% 22.7% 4.40 -24.3%

Away win 71.7% 75.2% 1.33 -4.6%

Over 2.5 60.3% 60.6% 1.65 -0.5%

Over 3.5 38.0% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob49.5%

A 72% / xG 0.8-2.3 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.9%

#2 0–1 10.3%

#3 1–2 9.5%

#4 0–3 9.2%

#5 1–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Difai Agsu0.8

Sebail2.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.3% · O3.5 PROB 38.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DIFAI AGSU · PPG 0.73

SEBAIL · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.60) vs Home POOR (0.73)

Win probability 1X2

Difai Agsu (H) 11.1%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV -17.9%

Draw 17.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -24.3%

Sebail (A) 71.7%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Difai Agsu face Sebail in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Difai Agsu a 11% chance, the draw 17% and Sebail 72%, so Sebail are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Difai Agsu and 2.3 for Sebail (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Difai Agsu are averaging 0.73 points per game versus 1.60 for Sebail. This match finished 0-4.

Difai Agsu vs Sebail Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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