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USA - Major League Soccer
Regular Season - 9
PayPal Park· San Jose
Thursday, April 23, 2026
02:30
SJ Earthquakes
PPG 2.25
5-1
MISS
Austin
PPG 0.50
Home· +34.6%
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
98% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
92.2%
Odds: 1.46
EV: +34.6%
Draw
6.2%
Odds: 4.40
EV: -72.7%
Away
1.6%
Odds: 6.40
EV: -89.8%
Model lean:
Home
Result: Home ✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
71.6%
Odds: 1.55
+11.0%
Over 3.5
50.8%
Odds: 2.35
+19.4%
BTTS
27.9%
Odds: 1.65
-54.0%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔
BTTS NO → YES ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st
3-0
✘
2nd
2-0
✘
3rd
4-0
✘
4th
5-0
✘
5th
1-0
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
SJ Earthquakes
3.37
Austin
0.34
Model Suggestion
Home
+34.6%
ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market:
Home.
Verdict & Form
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
98%
STRONG_HOME
Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.25), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus