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SJ Earthquakes vs Austin Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 9 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 02:30

SJ Earthquakes

PPG 2.25 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Austin

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 92.2% vs bookmaker-implied 68.5% — a clear edge.

+34.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-10.8%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.2%1-12.8%1-20.5%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-013.9%2-14.7%2-20.8%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-015.6%3-15.3%3-20.9%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-030.9%4+-110.6%4+-21.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 92.2% 68.5% 1.46 +34.6%

Draw 6.2% 22.7% 4.40 -72.7%

Away win 1.6% 15.6% 6.40 -89.8%

Over 2.5 71.6% 64.5% 1.55 +11.0%

Over 3.5 50.8% 42.6% 2.35 +19.4%

BTTS 27.9% 60.6% 1.65 -54.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 85%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob27.9%

H 92% / xG 3.4-0.3 / O2.5 72% / NoBTTS 28%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 15.6%

#2 2–0 13.9%

#3 4–0 13.1%

#4 5–0 8.8%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SJ Earthquakes3.4

Austin0.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 50.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SJ EARTHQUAKES · PPG 2.25

AUSTIN · PPG 0.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.25), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

SJ Earthquakes (H) 92.2%

ODDS 1.46 · IMPLIED 68.5% EV +34.6%

Draw 6.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -72.7%

Austin (A) 1.6%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV -89.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

SJ Earthquakes face Austin in USA - Major League Soccer on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SJ Earthquakes a 92% chance, the draw 6% and Austin 2%, so SJ Earthquakes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for SJ Earthquakes and 0.3 for Austin (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 28% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SJ Earthquakes are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.50 for Austin. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +34.6%. This match finished 5-1.

SJ Earthquakes vs Austin Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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