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Real Oviedo vs Villarreal Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 19:30

Real Oviedo

PPG 1.13 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Villarreal

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 57.0% vs bookmaker-implied 47.2% — a clear edge.

+20.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-113.3%0-211.2%0-36.3%0-4+3.8%1 1-06.8%1-111.4%1-29.6%1-35.4%1-4+3.3%2 2-02.9%2-14.9%2-24.1%2-32.3%2-4+1.4%3 3-00.8%3-11.4%3-21.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.0% 29.4% 3.40 -35.4%

Draw 24.1% 30.3% 3.30 -20.5%

Away win 57.0% 47.2% 2.12 +20.8%

Over 2.5 46.6% 52.4% 1.91 -11.0%

Over 3.5 25.1% 30.8% 3.25 -18.4%

BTTS 46.9% 57.8% 1.73 -18.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob46.9%

A 57% / xG 0.9-1.7 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.3%

#2 1–1✓ 11.4%

#3 0–2 11.2%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Oviedo0.9

Villarreal1.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.1%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL OVIEDO · PPG 1.13

VILLARREAL · PPG 1.50

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.13) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Real Oviedo (H) 19.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -35.4%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -20.5%

Villarreal (A) 57.0%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Oviedo face Villarreal in Spain - La Liga on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Oviedo a 19% chance, the draw 24% and Villarreal 57%, so Villarreal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Real Oviedo and 1.7 for Villarreal (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Oviedo are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.50 for Villarreal. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Real Oviedo vs Villarreal Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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