Real Oviedo vs Villarreal Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Spain - La Liga Regular Season - 33 Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere· Oviedo Thursday, April 23, 2026 19:30

Real Oviedo PPG 1.13

1-1 HIT CS2

Villarreal PPG 1.50

Away· +20.8% ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Oviedo face Villarreal in Spain - La Liga on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Oviedo a 19% chance, the draw 24% and Villarreal 57%, so Villarreal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Real Oviedo and 1.7 for Villarreal (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Oviedo are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.50 for Villarreal. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 19.0%

Odds: 3.40 EV: -35.4%

Draw 24.1%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -20.5%

Away 57.0%

Odds: 2.12 EV: +20.8%

Model lean: Away

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.6% Odds: 1.91 -11.0%

Over 3.5 25.1% Odds: 3.25 -18.4%

BTTS 46.9% Odds: 1.73 -18.9%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-1 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✔

3rd 0-2 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Real Oviedo

0.86

Villarreal

1.68

Model SuggestionAway +20.8% ROI TRACKS: Away
Tracked ROI market: Away. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.13) vs Away GOOD (1.50)