Tijuana vs Pachuca Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Mexico - Liga MX Clausura - 16 Estadio Caliente· Tijuana Thursday, April 23, 2026 03:06

Tijuana PPG 1.14

3-1 MISS

Pachuca PPG 1.57

Draw· +10.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Tijuana face Pachuca in Mexico - Liga MX on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tijuana a 30% chance, the draw 32% and Pachuca 38%, so Pachuca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Tijuana and 1.0 for Pachuca (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tijuana are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.57 for Pachuca. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +10.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 30.3%

Odds: 2.30 EV: -30.3%

Draw 31.5%

Odds: 3.50 EV: +10.3%

Away 38.2%

Odds: 2.86 EV: +9.3%

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 30.2% Odds: 1.83 -44.7%

Over 3.5 12.9% Odds: 3.10 -60.0%

BTTS 37.9% Odds: 1.65 -37.5%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 0-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Tijuana

0.89

Pachuca

1.03

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.14) vs Away GOOD (1.57)