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Tijuana vs Pachuca Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Clausura - 16 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 03:06

Tijuana

PPG 1.14 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Pachuca

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.6%0-115.1%0-27.8%0-32.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-013.0%1-113.4%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.8%2-16.0%2-23.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.7%3-11.8%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.3% 43.5% 2.30 -30.3%

Draw 31.5% 28.6% 3.50 +10.3%

Away win 38.2% 35.0% 2.86 +9.3%

Over 2.5 30.2% 54.6% 1.83 -44.7%

Over 3.5 12.9% 32.3% 3.10 -60.0%

BTTS 37.9% 60.6% 1.65 -37.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 16.3%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob37.9%

D 32% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.1%

#2 0–0 14.6%

#3 1–1 13.4%

#4 1–0 13.0%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tijuana0.9

Pachuca1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.2% · O3.5 PROB 12.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TIJUANA · PPG 1.14

PACHUCA · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.14) vs Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Tijuana (H) 30.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -30.3%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +10.3%

Pachuca (A) 38.2%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV +9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tijuana face Pachuca in Mexico - Liga MX on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tijuana a 30% chance, the draw 32% and Pachuca 38%, so Pachuca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Tijuana and 1.0 for Pachuca (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tijuana are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.57 for Pachuca. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +10.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Tijuana vs Pachuca Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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