Saprissa vs Guadalupe Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Costa-Rica - Primera División Clausura - 17 Thursday, April 23, 2026 02:30

Saprissa PPG 1.75

5-0 MISS

Guadalupe PPG 0.50

Over3.5· +4.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Saprissa face Guadalupe in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Saprissa a 86% chance, the draw 10% and Guadalupe 4%, so Saprissa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Saprissa and 0.6 for Guadalupe (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Saprissa are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.50 for Guadalupe. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 5-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 86.4%

Odds: 1.15 EV: -0.6%

Draw 9.6%

Odds: 5.80 EV: -44.3%

Away 4.0%

Odds: 16.00 EV: -36.0%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 69.9% Odds: 1.48 +3.5%

Over 3.5 48.6% Odds: 2.15 +4.5%

BTTS 40.4% Odds: 2.10 -15.2%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 3-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 4-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Saprissa

3.06

Guadalupe

0.55

Model SuggestionHome -0.6% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-0.6%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5/Under 57%

BTTS/No 71%

Score Hit 57%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.75), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus