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Saprissa vs Guadalupe Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Clausura - 17 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 02:30

Saprissa

PPG 1.75 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Guadalupe

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 86.4% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-11.5%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.3%1-14.6%1-21.3%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-012.7%2-17.0%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.9%3-17.1%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-021.1%4+-111.6%4+-23.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 86.4% 87.0% 1.15 -0.6%

Draw 9.6% 17.2% 5.80 -44.3%

Away win 4.0% 6.3% 16.00 -36.0%

Over 2.5 69.9% 67.6% 1.48 +3.5%

Over 3.5 48.6% 46.5% 2.15 +4.5%

BTTS 40.4% 47.6% 2.10 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob40.4%

H 86% / xG 3.1-0.6 / O2.5 70% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 12.9%

#2 2–0 12.7%

#3 4–0 9.9%

#4 1–0 8.3%

#5 3–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Saprissa3.1

Guadalupe0.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.9% · O3.5 PROB 48.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SAPRISSA · PPG 1.75

GUADALUPE · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.75), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Saprissa (H) 86.4%

ODDS 1.15 · IMPLIED 87.0% EV -0.6%

Draw 9.6%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -44.3%

Guadalupe (A) 4.0%

ODDS 16.00 · IMPLIED 6.3% EV -36.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Saprissa face Guadalupe in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Saprissa a 86% chance, the draw 10% and Guadalupe 4%, so Saprissa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Saprissa and 0.6 for Guadalupe (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Saprissa are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.50 for Guadalupe. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 5-0.

Saprissa vs Guadalupe Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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