Today / PSM vs Persik Kediri

PSM vs Persik Kediri Prediction

Thursday, April 23, 2026

PSM

PPG 0.86 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Persik Kediri

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.86) > Away POOR (0.50)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-15.4%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.2%1-110.4%1-25.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.2%3-16.3%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-14.7%4+-22.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.2% — — —

Draw 22.0% — — —

Away win 19.7% — — —

Over 2.5 56.1% — — —

Over 3.5 33.7% — — —

BTTS 54.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.4%

H 58% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 1–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 3–1✓ 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PSM1.9

Persik Kediri1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PSM · PPG 0.86

PERSIK KEDIRI · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.86) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

PSM (H) 58.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Persik Kediri (A) 19.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

PSM face Persik Kediri on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PSM a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Persik Kediri 20%, so PSM are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for PSM and 1.0 for Persik Kediri (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PSM are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.50 for Persik Kediri. This match finished 3-1.

PSM vs Persik Kediri Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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