Leagues / PERU / Primera División

Primera División

PERU · 114 MATCHES TRACKED · 14 APR 2026 – 4 SEPT 2026

▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE

MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE

Upcoming Primera División predictions

2 FIXTURES WITH ODDS · MODEL PICK, PROBABILITY AND EV PER MATCH

DateMatchPickProbOddsEV

4 SEPT18:00 FC Cajamarca vs Cienciano Over 2.5 67% 1.70 +14%4 SEPT20:15 Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca Home 66% 1.67 +10%

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 110 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

55.5%

1X2

61/110

63.6%

O/U 2.5

70/110

63.6%

BTTS

70/110

51.8%

Exact score

57/110

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

58.8%

Hit rate

30/51

1.89

Avg odds

+9.2%

ROI

+4.7u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

OVER 2.5 · N=23 65.2% HIT · AVG 1.88 · +21.8% ROI

BTTS · N=12 58.3% HIT · AVG 1.84 · +7.9% ROI

HOME WIN · N=9 33.3% HIT · AVG 2.04 · -38.9% ROI

HOME O1.5 · N=7 71.4% HIT · AVG 1.83 · +32.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

50%

Hit

-10.2%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

61%

Hit

+15.2%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

60%

Hit

+12.3%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

57%

Hit

+1.7%

ROI

Match log

110 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

September 2026 // 0 PICKS · 0 HIT · 0 MISS

1 SEPT Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar — NO PICK 1–0 —

August 2026 // 13 PICKS · 10 HIT · 3 MISS

31 AUG Cienciano vs Cusco Over 2.5 +16% 1–2 HIT 30 AUG Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso Home -27% 0–1 MISS 30 AUG UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico Over 2.5 +9% 1–4 HIT 30 AUG ADT vs Sport Huancayo Over 2.5 +13% 1–3 HIT 30 AUG Sport Boys vs Sporting Cristal HO1.5 1–0 MISS 29 AUG Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Juan Pablo II College HO1.5 3–4 HIT 29 AUG UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario BTTS -5% 2–4 HIT 28 AUG Comerciantes Unidos vs FC Cajamarca Over 2.5 +10% 2–3 HIT 23 AUG Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cusco HO1.5 4–1 HIT 23 AUG Sport Boys vs Cienciano — NO PICK 5–1 —23 AUG FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima BTTS +3% 1–1 HIT 23 AUG Universitario vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas HO1.5 3–0 HIT 22 AUG Sport Huancayo vs UCV Moquegua Home -28% 0–2 MISS 22 AUG UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos BTTS -1% 1–3 HIT