Leagues / PERU / Primera División
Primera División
▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE
MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 56 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
62.5%
1X2
35/56
64.3%
O/U 2.5
36/56
62.5%
BTTS
35/56
51.8%
Exact score
29/56
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
45
Settled
62.2%
Hit rate
28/45
1.82
Avg odds
+10.4%
ROI
+4.7u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=19 63.2% HIT · AVG 1.79 · +12.6% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=14 64.3% HIT · AVG 1.87 · +18.4% ROI
HOME WIN · N=8 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.88 · -14.9% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.75 · -15.0% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.60 · +60.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
4
Bets
25%
Hit
-51.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
7
Bets
57%
Hit
+7.6%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
9
Bets
67%
Hit
+23.4%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
25
Bets
68%
Hit
+16.4%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 11 PICKS · 6 HIT · 5 MISS
31 MAY FBC Melgar vs Alianza A. BTTS +0% 3–1 HIT31 MAY FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Lima Away -1% 1–1 MISS31 MAY Cienciano vs S. Cristal HO1.5 3–2 HIT30 MAY ADT vs Cusco BTTS -16% 1–2 HIT30 MAY D. Garcilaso vs Juan Pablo II HO1.5 4–1 HIT30 MAY Sport Boys vs Comerciantes U. — NO PICK 1–0 —29 MAY Atletico Grau vs UCV Moquegua — NO PICK 1–0 —25 MAY Comerciantes U. vs D. Garcilaso — NO PICK 0–0 —24 MAY S. Cristal vs ADT BTTS +6% 2–1 HIT24 MAY Sport Huancayo vs Cienciano Over 2.5 +4% 2–2 HIT24 MAY Alianza A. vs FC Cajamarca Home -17% 1–1 MISS23 MAY UCV Moquegua vs Universitario BTTS -9% 0–0 MISS23 MAY Cajamarca vs Sport Boys BTTS -9% 0–0 MISS23 MAY Cusco vs Atletico Grau — NO PICK 1–0 —22 MAY Juan Pablo II vs FBC Melgar Over 2.5 +24% 1–1 MISS