Leagues / ENGLAND / League Two
League Two
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 61 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
44.3%
1X2
27/61
50.8%
O/U 2.5
31/61
54.1%
BTTS
33/61
45.9%
Exact score
28/61
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
18
Settled
50.0%
Hit rate
9/18
1.95
Avg odds
-12.1%
ROI
-2.2u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=10 40.0% HIT · AVG 2.04 · -32.4% ROI
BTTS · N=5 80.0% HIT · AVG 1.72 · +38.4% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 2.00 · +7.5% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.08 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
1
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
5
Bets
40%
Hit
-27.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
8
Bets
63%
Hit
+13.4%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
4
Bets
50%
Hit
-22.3%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
September 2026 // 4 PICKS · 3 HIT · 1 MISS
1 SEPT Salford City vs Newport County BTTS +5% 2–1 HIT1 SEPT Chesterfield vs Gillingham — NO PICK 1–1 —1 SEPT Crewe vs Walsall — NO PICK 2–2 —1 SEPT Accrington ST vs Grimsby BTTS -4% 2–2 HIT1 SEPT Fleetwood Town vs Oldham BTTS -8% 1–1 HIT1 SEPT Bristol Rovers vs Colchester Over 2.5 +13% 2–0 MISSAugust 2026 // 6 PICKS · 3 HIT · 3 MISS
29 AUG Barnet vs Cheltenham HO1.5 2–2 HIT29 AUG Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town — NO PICK 2–2 —29 AUG Newport County vs Tranmere BTTS +1% 2–2 HIT29 AUG Oldham vs Swindon Town — NO PICK 3–0 —29 AUG Shrewsbury vs Salford City BTTS -5% 1–0 MISS29 AUG Walsall vs Accrington ST Home -6% 3–2 HIT29 AUG Crawley Town vs Bristol Rovers BTTS +0% 0–2 MISS22 AUG Salford City vs Chesterfield BTTS -4% 0–1 MISS22 AUG Walsall vs Grimsby — NO PICK 0–0 —