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Los Angeles FC vs Colorado Rapids Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 9 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 02:30

Los Angeles FC

PPG 2.40 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Colorado Rapids

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 85.0% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a clear edge.

+25.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.1%0-20.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.1%1-13.9%1-22.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.4%2 2-05.4%2-16.7%2-24.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.2%3-17.8%3-24.9%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-013.1%4+-116.3%4+-210.2%4+-34.3%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 78.8% 68.5% 1.46 +15.0%

Draw 11.7% 21.5% 4.65 -45.6%

Away win 9.6% 16.9% 5.90 -43.4%

Over 2.5 85.0% 67.6% 1.48 +25.8%

Over 3.5 69.3% 45.5% 2.20 +52.5%

BTTS 69.2% 62.5% 1.60 +10.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 85%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob69.2%

H 79% / xG 3.5-1.3 / O2.5 85% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.8%

#2 4–1 6.7%

#3 2–1 6.7%

#4 3–0 6.2%

#5 4–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Los Angeles FC3.5

Colorado Rapids1.3

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 85.0% · O3.5 PROB 69.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LOS ANGELES FC · PPG 2.40

COLORADO RAPIDS · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.40), Away POOR (0.75) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Los Angeles FC (H) 78.8%

ODDS 1.46 · IMPLIED 68.5% EV +15.0%

Draw 11.7%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV -45.6%

Colorado Rapids (A) 9.6%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV -43.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Los Angeles FC face Colorado Rapids in USA - Major League Soccer on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Angeles FC a 79% chance, the draw 12% and Colorado Rapids 10%, so Los Angeles FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Los Angeles FC and 1.3 for Colorado Rapids (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 85% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Angeles FC are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.75 for Colorado Rapids. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +52.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Los Angeles FC vs Colorado Rapids Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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