Liga 1
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 51 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
56.9%
1X2
29/51
52.9%
O/U 2.5
27/51
49.0%
BTTS
25/51
43.1%
Exact score
22/51
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
44
Settled
59.1%
Hit rate
26/44
1.68
Avg odds
-13.1%
ROI
-5.8u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=18 55.6% HIT · AVG 1.65 · -9.4% ROI
HOME WIN · N=13 61.5% HIT · AVG 1.81 · -20.5% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=9 55.6% HIT · AVG 1.68 · -9.8% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=4 75.0% HIT · AVG 1.41 · -13.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
100%
Hit
+72.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
11
Bets
73%
Hit
-11.9%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
4
Bets
50%
Hit
-14.5%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
27
Bets
52%
Hit
-19.7%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 15 PICKS · 11 HIT · 4 MISS
23 MAY Persib vs Persijap Home -28% 0–0 MISS23 MAY Persita vs Persis Solo Home +246% 1–3 MISS23 MAY Persija vs Semen Padang Home -31% 3–0 HIT23 MAY Bhayangkara S. vs PSBS Biak N. Home 7–0 HIT23 MAY Persebaya S. vs Persik Kediri Over 2.5 -4% 5–0 HIT17 MAY Bali Utd vs Bhayangkara S. BTTS -18% 4–1 HIT17 MAY PSIM Yogyakarta vs Madura Utd BTTS -16% 2–1 HIT16 MAY Persik Kediri vs Persija Over 2.5 -11% 1–3 HIT16 MAY Persis Solo vs Dewa Utd BTTS -20% 1–0 MISS16 MAY Malut United vs Persita BTTS -15% 1–1 HIT15 MAY Semen Padang vs Persebaya S. Away -27% 0–7 HIT15 MAY PSBS Biak N. vs Arema Over 2.5 2–5 HIT11 MAY Bali Utd vs Borneo Over 2.5 -12% 2–3 HIT11 MAY Bhayangkara S. vs Madura Utd BTTS -12% 3–1 HIT10 MAY Persita vs Persijap Home +29% 0–3 MISS