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Spanish Town P. vs Portmore Utd Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Regular Season - 36 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 20:30

Spanish Town P.

PPG 1.06 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Portmore Utd

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 77.2% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-111.2%0-213.7%0-311.1%0-4+12.2%1 1-02.9%1-17.2%1-28.7%1-37.1%1-4+7.8%2 2-00.9%2-12.3%2-22.8%2-32.3%2-4+2.5%3 3-00.2%3-10.5%3-20.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 7.8% 7.7% 13.00 +1.4%

Draw 15.1% 16.7% 6.00 -9.4%

Away win 77.2% 85.5% 1.17 -9.7%

Over 2.5 59.6% 70.4% 1.42 -15.4%

Over 3.5 37.2% 47.6% 2.10 -21.9%

BTTS 43.2% 50.0% 2.00 -13.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob43.2%

A 77% / xG 0.6-2.4 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.7%

#2 0–1✓ 11.2%

#3 0–3 11.1%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 1–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spanish Town P.0.6

Portmore Utd2.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SPANISH TOWN P. · PPG 1.06

PORTMORE UTD · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.67) vs Home AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Spanish Town P. (H) 7.8%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +1.4%

Draw 15.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -9.4%

Portmore Utd (A) 77.2%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spanish Town P. face Portmore Utd in Jamaica - Premier League on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spanish Town P. a 8% chance, the draw 15% and Portmore Utd 77%, so Portmore Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Spanish Town P. and 2.4 for Portmore Utd (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spanish Town P. are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.67 for Portmore Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Spanish Town P. vs Portmore Utd Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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