Leagues / ARGENTINA / Liga Profesional Argentina
Liga Profesional Argentina
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 29 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
27.6%
1X2
8/29
62.1%
O/U 2.5
18/29
69.0%
BTTS
20/29
48.3%
Exact score
14/29
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
18
Settled
33.3%
Hit rate
6/18
2.01
Avg odds
-39.3%
ROI
-7.1u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=13 30.8% HIT · AVG 1.93 · -46.7% ROI
BTTS · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.98 · +33.3% ROI
DRAW · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.74 · -100.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.32 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
5
Bets
40%
Hit
-25.2%
ROI
✓ Solid
5
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
6
Bets
50%
Hit
-5.2%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-25.0%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 3 PICKS · 0 HIT · 3 MISS
4 MAY Velez Sarsfield vs Newells Home -11% 1–1 MISS3 MAY Aldosivi vs I. Rivadavia Away +21% 1–1 MISS3 MAY Racing Club vs Huracan — NO PICK 0–0 —3 MAY Rosario Central vs Tigre — NO PICK 1–1 —3 MAY Gimnasia vs Argentinos Jrs — NO PICK 2–0 —3 MAY Belgrano vs Sarmiento — NO PICK 4–0 —3 MAY River Plate vs A. Tucuman Home -18% 0–1 MISSApril 2026 // 5 PICKS · 2 HIT · 3 MISS
27 APR Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe Home +26% 2–2 MISS26 APR Newells vs Instituto BTTS +5% 1–1 HIT26 APR Belgrano vs Gimnasia Home +2% 0–1 MISS26 APR A. Tucuman vs Banfield BTTS +5% 1–1 HIT25 APR Estudiantes vs T. de Cordoba Home +56% 0–0 MISS25 APR Sarmiento vs Tigre — NO PICK 1–0 —24 APR D. Riestra vs Independiente — NO PICK 2–0 —24 APR E. Rio Cuarto vs Rosario Central — NO PICK 1–2 —