Leagues / USA / Major League Soccer
Major League Soccer
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 76 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
47.4%
1X2
36/76
60.5%
O/U 2.5
46/76
68.4%
BTTS
52/76
40.8%
Exact score
31/76
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
41
Settled
53.7%
Hit rate
22/41
1.73
Avg odds
-8.5%
ROI
-3.5u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=27 51.9% HIT · AVG 1.61 · -13.8% ROI
HOME WIN · N=7 71.4% HIT · AVG 1.87 · +26.9% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=4 25.0% HIT · AVG 2.28 · -47.0% ROI
BTTS · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.69 · -20.0% ROI
OVER 3.5 · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.65 · +65.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
12
Bets
50%
Hit
-8.3%
ROI
✓ Solid
11
Bets
45%
Hit
-25.6%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
5
Bets
40%
Hit
-27.2%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
13
Bets
69%
Hit
+13.0%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 15 PICKS · 9 HIT · 6 MISS
24 MAY Columbus Crew vs Atlanta Utd BTTS -15% 2–0 MISS24 MAY Inter Miami vs Philadelphia Over 2.5 -17% 6–4 HIT23 MAY St. Louis City vs Austin Over 2.5 -4% 3–0 HIT23 MAY Minnesota Utd vs Real Salt Lake BTTS -16% 1–1 HIT23 MAY DC United vs CF Montreal Over 2.5 +11% 4–4 HIT23 MAY Charlotte vs New England Over 2.5 1–0 MISS23 MAY Cincinnati vs Orlando City Over 3.5 +35% 6–2 HIT17 MAY SJ Earthquakes vs Dallas Over 2.5 -11% 2–3 HIT17 MAY Inter Miami vs Portland Over 2.5 -6% 2–0 MISS16 MAY CF Montreal vs Chicago Fire Over 2.5 +4% 0–2 MISS16 MAY Philadelphia vs Columbus Crew BTTS -14% 1–1 HIT16 MAY Orlando City vs Atlanta Utd Over 2.5 -4% 1–1 MISS16 MAY New York RB vs New York City Over 2.5 -1% 1–1 MISS16 MAY DC United vs St. Louis City BTTS -15% 1–1 HIT16 MAY Charlotte vs Toronto Over 2.5 +5% 3–1 HIT