1. Division

DENMARK · 42 MATCHES TRACKED · 17 APR 2026 – 31 MAY 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 42 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

57.1%

1X2

24/42

59.5%

O/U 2.5

25/42

61.9%

BTTS

26/42

33.3%

Exact score

14/42

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

60.0%

Hit rate

18/30

1.61

Avg odds

-5.4%

ROI

-1.6u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

BTTS · N=17 52.9% HIT · AVG 1.60 · -17.3% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=9 55.6% HIT · AVG 1.63 · -12.1% ROI

HOME WIN · N=4 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.60 · +60.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

✓ Solid

Bets

67%

Hit

-7.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

100%

Hit

+65.0%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

54%

Hit

-14.0%

ROI

Match log

42 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 14 PICKS · 7 HIT · 7 MISS

31 MAY Hillerod vs Hvidovre BTTS -19% 2–1 HIT 31 MAY Esbjerg vs Lyngby BTTS -12% 2–1 HIT 31 MAY AC Horsens vs Kolding IF Home -25% 1–0 HIT 30 MAY Hobro vs Middelfart Over 2.5 -7% 3–2 HIT 30 MAY Aalborg BK vs HB Koge Over 2.5 -8% 1–0 MISS 30 MAY B 93 vs Aarhus Fremad BTTS -13% 2–2 HIT 25 MAY Kolding IF vs Hillerod BTTS -14% 3–0 MISS 25 MAY Hvidovre vs Esbjerg BTTS -17% 1–4 HIT 25 MAY Lyngby vs AC Horsens — NO PICK 0–2 —24 MAY HB Koge vs Hobro BTTS -14% 0–1 MISS 23 MAY Middelfart vs B 93 Over 2.5 -8% 2–4 HIT 22 MAY Aarhus Fremad vs Aalborg BK BTTS -18% 5–0 MISS 9 MAY Hvidovre vs Lyngby BTTS -6% 0–2 MISS 9 MAY AC Horsens vs Hillerod BTTS -3% 4–0 MISS 9 MAY Aarhus Fremad vs HB Koge Over 2.5 +2% 0–0 MISS