Today / Malaysia - Super League / Melaka vs Sabah

Melaka vs Sabah Prediction— Malaysia - Super League

Regular Season - 14 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 12:15

Melaka

PPG 1.22 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sabah

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-19.3%0-27.8%0-34.4%0-4+2.7%1 1-06.7%1-111.3%1-29.5%1-35.3%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.1%2-16.8%2-25.8%2-33.2%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.6%3-12.8%3-22.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.5% 37.7% 2.65 -27.1%

Draw 24.0% 29.4% 3.40 -18.4%

Away win 48.5% 42.9% 2.33 +13.0%

Over 2.5 55.4% 57.8% 1.73 -4.2%

Over 3.5 33.0% 35.7% 2.80 -7.6%

BTTS 57.2% 63.7% 1.57 -10.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob57.2%

A 48% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–1 9.3%

#4 0–2 7.8%

#5 2–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melaka1.2

Sabah1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.4% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MELAKA · PPG 1.22

SABAH · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.22), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Melaka (H) 27.5%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -27.1%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -18.4%

Sabah (A) 48.5%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Melaka face Sabah in Malaysia - Super League on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melaka a 28% chance, the draw 24% and Sabah 49%, so Sabah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Melaka and 1.7 for Sabah (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melaka are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.00 for Sabah. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Melaka vs Sabah Prediction— Malaysia - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Malaysia - Super League Predictions