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Casa Pia vs Sporting Braga Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Regular Season - 26 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 18:00

Casa Pia

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Sporting Braga

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 69.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-19.0%0-210.6%0-38.3%0-4+8.5%1 1-03.5%1-18.2%1-29.6%1-37.6%1-4+7.7%2 2-01.6%2-13.7%2-24.4%2-33.4%2-4+3.5%3 3-00.5%3-11.1%3-21.3%3-31.0%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.9% 17.4% 5.75 -25.8%

Draw 17.6% 26.0% 3.85 -32.2%

Away win 69.4% 63.7% 1.57 +9.0%

Over 2.5 63.3% 52.6% 1.90 +20.3%

Over 3.5 41.2% 30.8% 3.25 +33.9%

BTTS 54.1% 52.6% 1.90 +2.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob54.1%

A 69% / xG 0.9-2.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–1✓ 9.0%

#4 0–3 8.3%

#5 1–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Casa Pia0.9

Sporting Braga2.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 41.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CASA PIA · PPG 1.00

SPORTING BRAGA · PPG 1.79

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.79) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Casa Pia (H) 12.9%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -25.8%

Draw 17.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -32.2%

Sporting Braga (A) 69.4%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Casa Pia face Sporting Braga in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Casa Pia a 13% chance, the draw 18% and Sporting Braga 69%, so Sporting Braga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Casa Pia and 2.4 for Sporting Braga (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Casa Pia are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.79 for Sporting Braga. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Casa Pia vs Sporting Braga Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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