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SonderjyskE vs FC Midtjylland Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Championship Group - 28 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 18:00

SonderjyskE

PPG 1.85 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

FC Midtjylland

PPG 1.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-17.7%0-29.3%0-37.4%0-4+7.8%1 1-03.4%1-18.0%1-29.6%1-37.7%1-4+8.1%2 2-01.7%2-14.2%2-25.0%2-34.0%2-4+4.2%3 3-00.6%3-11.4%3-21.7%3-31.4%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.8% 19.2% 5.20 -23.0%

Draw 17.9% 24.4% 4.10 -26.6%

Away win 67.3% 63.7% 1.57 +5.7%

Over 2.5 66.7% 64.5% 1.55 +3.4%

Over 3.5 44.9% 42.6% 2.35 +5.5%

BTTS 58.7% 63.7% 1.57 -7.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob58.7%

A 67% / xG 1.0-2.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 9.6%

#2 0–2 9.3%

#3 1–1 8.0%

#4 0–1 7.7%

#5 1–3 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SonderjyskE1.0

FC Midtjylland2.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.7% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SONDERJYSKE · PPG 1.85

FC MIDTJYLLAND · PPG 1.92

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.85), Away GOOD (1.92)

Win probability 1X2

SonderjyskE (H) 14.8%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV -23.0%

Draw 17.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -26.6%

FC Midtjylland (A) 67.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

SonderjyskE face FC Midtjylland in Denmark - Superliga on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SonderjyskE a 15% chance, the draw 18% and FC Midtjylland 67%, so FC Midtjylland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for SonderjyskE and 2.4 for FC Midtjylland (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SonderjyskE are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.92 for FC Midtjylland. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.7%. This match finished 1-2.

SonderjyskE vs FC Midtjylland Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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