Today / S. Subotica vs Backa Topola

S. Subotica vs Backa Topola Prediction

Thursday, April 23, 2026

S. Subotica

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Backa Topola

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: POOR (0.67) vs Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-110.5%0-26.4%0-32.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.6%1-112.9%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.5%2-18.0%2-24.9%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.7%3-13.3%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% — — —

Draw 27.3% — — —

Away win 36.2% — — —

Over 2.5 44.5% — — —

Over 3.5 23.3% — — —

BTTS 50.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 15%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob50.0%

H 37% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 44% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 10.6%

#3 0–1 10.5%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Subotica1.2

Backa Topola1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.3%

Form & verdict PPG

S. SUBOTICA · PPG 0.67

BACKA TOPOLA · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.67) vs Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

S. Subotica (H) 36.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Backa Topola (A) 36.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Subotica face Backa Topola on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Subotica a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Backa Topola 36%, so S. Subotica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for S. Subotica and 1.2 for Backa Topola (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Subotica are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.07 for Backa Topola. This match finished 1-4.

S. Subotica vs Backa Topola Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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