Today / Denmark - Superliga / Randers FC vs Fredericia

Randers FC vs Fredericia Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Relegation Group - 28 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 16:00

Randers FC

PPG 1.08 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fredericia

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.3%0-24.8%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.7%1-111.5%1-27.6%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.1%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.6%3-14.8%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 57.1% 1.75 -24.1%

Draw 24.5% 26.0% 3.85 -5.7%

Away win 32.0% 23.8% 4.20 +34.4%

Over 2.5 55.5% 63.7% 1.57 -12.9%

Over 3.5 33.1% 41.7% 2.40 -20.6%

BTTS 58.3% 66.7% 1.50 -12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.3%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 8.7%

#4 1–2 7.6%

#5 0–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Randers FC1.6

Fredericia1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.1%

Form & verdict PPG

RANDERS FC · PPG 1.08

FREDERICIA · PPG 1.21

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.08), Away AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

Randers FC (H) 43.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -24.1%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -5.7%

Fredericia (A) 32.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +34.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Randers FC face Fredericia in Denmark - Superliga on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Randers FC a 43% chance, the draw 25% and Fredericia 32%, so Randers FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Randers FC and 1.3 for Fredericia (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Randers FC are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.21 for Fredericia. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +34.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Randers FC vs Fredericia Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Denmark - Superliga Predictions