Malut United vs Persebaya S. Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Indonesia - Liga 1 Regular Season - 29 Gelora Kie Raha Stadium· Ternate Thursday, April 23, 2026 12:00

Malut United PPG 1.71

0-2 MISS

Persebaya S. PPG 1.31

Over3.5· +46.9% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Malut United face Persebaya S. in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malut United a 63% chance, the draw 19% and Persebaya S. 19%, so Malut United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Malut United and 1.3 for Persebaya S. (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malut United are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.31 for Persebaya S.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +46.9%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 62.9%

Odds: 1.77 EV: +11.3%

Draw 18.6%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -34.9%

Away 18.6%

Odds: 4.00 EV: -25.6%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 70.8% Odds: 1.77 +25.3%

Over 3.5 49.8% Odds: 2.95 +46.9%

BTTS 65.0% Odds: 1.67 +8.6%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 3-1 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Malut United

2.41

Persebaya S.

1.25

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +25.3% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+46.9%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5/Under 53%

BTTS/No 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 46% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.31)