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Malut United vs Persebaya S. Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 29 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 12:00

Malut United

PPG 1.71 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Persebaya S.

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.8% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a clear edge.

+25.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.2%0-22.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.2%1-17.8%1-24.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.4%2-19.3%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.0%3-17.5%3-24.7%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-18.0%4+-25.0%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.9% 56.5% 1.77 +11.3%

Draw 18.6% 28.6% 3.50 -34.9%

Away win 18.6% 25.0% 4.00 -25.6%

Over 2.5 70.8% 56.5% 1.77 +25.3%

Over 3.5 49.8% 33.9% 2.95 +46.9%

BTTS 65.0% 59.9% 1.67 +8.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob65.0%

H 63% / xG 2.4-1.3 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 3–1 7.5%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 1–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malut United2.4

Persebaya S.1.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.8% · O3.5 PROB 49.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MALUT UNITED · PPG 1.71

PERSEBAYA S. · PPG 1.31

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Malut United (H) 62.9%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV +11.3%

Draw 18.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -34.9%

Persebaya S. (A) 18.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -25.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Malut United face Persebaya S. in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malut United a 63% chance, the draw 19% and Persebaya S. 19%, so Malut United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Malut United and 1.3 for Persebaya S. (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malut United are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.31 for Persebaya S.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +46.9%. This match finished 0-2.

Malut United vs Persebaya S. Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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