Today / Russia - Premier League / Akron vs Makhachkala

Akron vs Makhachkala Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Regular Season - 26 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 14:30

Akron

PPG 0.75 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Makhachkala

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 39.8% — a clear edge.

+57.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-16.3%0-22.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.5%1-110.6%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-18.9%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.8%3-15.0%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-13.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.6% 39.8% 2.51 +57.1%

Draw 23.6% 31.7% 3.15 -25.7%

Away win 13.8% 31.8% 3.14 -56.7%

Over 2.5 40.9% 43.1% 2.32 -5.1%

Over 3.5 20.5% 24.4% 4.10 -16.0%

BTTS 38.4% 52.6% 1.90 -27.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 67%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob38.4%

H 63% / xG 1.7-0.6 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.5%

#2 2–0 13.9%

#3 1–1✓ 10.6%

#4 0–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Akron1.7

Makhachkala0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AKRON · PPG 0.75

MAKHACHKALA · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.75) > Away POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Akron (H) 62.6%

ODDS 2.51 · IMPLIED 39.8% EV +57.1%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -25.7%

Makhachkala (A) 13.8%

ODDS 3.14 · IMPLIED 31.8% EV -56.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Akron face Makhachkala in Russia - Premier League on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Akron a 63% chance, the draw 24% and Makhachkala 14%, so Akron are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Akron and 0.6 for Makhachkala (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Akron are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.33 for Makhachkala. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +57.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Akron vs Makhachkala Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Russia - Premier League Predictions