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Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Regular Season - 26 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 16:45

Spartak Moscow

PPG 2.31 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC Krasnodar

PPG 1.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-19.1%0-27.6%0-34.2%0-4+2.5%1 1-06.9%1-111.3%1-29.4%1-35.2%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.3%2-17.0%2-25.8%2-33.2%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.8%3-12.9%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% 42.0% 2.38 -31.5%

Draw 24.2% 28.4% 3.52 -14.8%

Away win 47.0% 32.9% 3.04 +42.9%

Over 2.5 55.4% 52.6% 1.90 +5.3%

Over 3.5 33.0% 32.8% 3.05 +0.7%

BTTS 57.6% 59.9% 1.67 -3.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 67%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob57.6%

A 47% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2✓ 9.4%

#3 0–1 9.1%

#4 0–2 7.6%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spartak Moscow1.2

FC Krasnodar1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.4% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTAK MOSCOW · PPG 2.31

FC KRASNODAR · PPG 1.92

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.31) > Away GOOD (1.92)

Win probability 1X2

Spartak Moscow (H) 28.8%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -31.5%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.52 · IMPLIED 28.4% EV -14.8%

FC Krasnodar (A) 47.0%

ODDS 3.04 · IMPLIED 32.9% EV +42.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Moscow face FC Krasnodar in Russia - Premier League on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Moscow a 29% chance, the draw 24% and FC Krasnodar 47%, so FC Krasnodar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Spartak Moscow and 1.7 for FC Krasnodar (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Moscow are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 1.92 for FC Krasnodar. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +42.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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