Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Russia - Premier League Regular Season - 26 Lukoil Arena· Moscow Thursday, April 23, 2026 16:45

Spartak Moscow PPG 2.31

1-2 HIT CS2

FC Krasnodar PPG 1.92

Away· +42.9% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Moscow face FC Krasnodar in Russia - Premier League on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Moscow a 29% chance, the draw 24% and FC Krasnodar 47%, so FC Krasnodar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Spartak Moscow and 1.7 for FC Krasnodar (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Moscow are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 1.92 for FC Krasnodar. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +42.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 28.8%

Odds: 2.38 EV: -31.5%

Draw 24.2%

Odds: 3.52 EV: -14.8%

Away 47.0%

Odds: 3.04 EV: +42.9%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 55.4% Odds: 1.90 +5.3%

Over 3.5 33.0% Odds: 3.05 +0.7%

BTTS 57.6% Odds: 1.67 -3.8%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✔

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Spartak Moscow

1.24

FC Krasnodar

1.66

Model SuggestionBTTS -3.8% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-3.8%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.31) > Away GOOD (1.92)