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Ittihad Kalba vs Bani Yas Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Regular Season - 23 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 14:00

Ittihad Kalba

PPG 0.82 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bani Yas

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-19.0%0-25.6%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.2%1-112.5%1-27.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.0%2-18.6%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.2%3-14.0%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 36.8% 2.72 +9.9%

Draw 26.3% 30.3% 3.30 -13.2%

Away win 33.3% 42.0% 2.38 -20.8%

Over 2.5 48.4% 54.6% 1.83 -11.4%

Over 3.5 26.6% 32.3% 3.10 -17.5%

BTTS 52.9% 60.6% 1.65 -12.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -7.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 10.2%

#3 0–1 9.0%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 1–2✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ittihad Kalba1.4

Bani Yas1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.4% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ITTIHAD KALBA · PPG 0.82

BANI YAS · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.82) vs Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Ittihad Kalba (H) 40.4%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV +9.9%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.2%

Bani Yas (A) 33.3%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ittihad Kalba face Bani Yas in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ittihad Kalba a 40% chance, the draw 26% and Bani Yas 33%, so Ittihad Kalba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ittihad Kalba and 1.2 for Bani Yas (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ittihad Kalba are averaging 0.82 points per game versus 1.18 for Bani Yas. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Ittihad Kalba vs Bani Yas Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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