Leagues / EGYPT / Premier League
Premier League
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 54 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
38.9%
1X2
21/54
59.3%
O/U 2.5
32/54
57.4%
BTTS
31/54
46.3%
Exact score
25/54
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
14
Settled
35.7%
Hit rate
5/14
2.07
Avg odds
-23.4%
ROI
-3.3u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=8 37.5% HIT · AVG 2.11 · -13.5% ROI
BTTS · N=4 25.0% HIT · AVG 1.90 · -51.8% ROI
DRAW · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.60 · -100.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.88 · +88.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
1
Bets
100%
Hit
+108.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
2
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
2
Bets
50%
Hit
+40.0%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
9
Bets
33%
Hit
-35.0%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 2 PICKS · 0 HIT · 2 MISS
29 MAY National Bank vs Al Ittihad — NO PICK 2–2 —29 MAY Ghazl El M. vs Haras El Hodood — NO PICK 4–2 —28 MAY Petrojet vs El Gouna — NO PICK 1–2 —28 MAY Ismaily vs Pharco — NO PICK 1–2 —28 MAY El Geish vs Wadi Degla — NO PICK 0–2 —23 MAY Al Ittihad vs Ismaily — NO PICK 3–0 —23 MAY Haras El Hodood vs Petrojet — NO PICK 0–3 —22 MAY El Gouna vs El Geish — NO PICK 2–1 —22 MAY Pharco vs National Bank — NO PICK 0–1 —20 MAY Pyramids FC vs Smouha — NO PICK 2–1 —20 MAY Zamalek vs Ceramica C. — NO PICK 1–0 —20 MAY Al Masry vs Al Ahly BTTS -3% 0–2 MISS18 MAY K. Ismailia vs Haras El Hodood BTTS +2% 0–2 MISS18 MAY El Geish vs Pharco — NO PICK 1–0 —18 MAY Ghazl El M. vs Al Ittihad — NO PICK 1–0 —