Deportivo Pasto vs Santa Fe Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Colombia - Primera A Apertura - 18 Estadio Departamental Libertad· Pasto Thursday, April 23, 2026 23:00

Deportivo Pasto PPG 2.22

1-2 MISS

Santa Fe PPG 1.22

Over3.5· +58.4% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Pasto face Santa Fe in Colombia - Primera A on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Pasto a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Santa Fe 15%, so Deportivo Pasto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Deportivo Pasto and 0.9 for Santa Fe (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Pasto are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.22 for Santa Fe. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +58.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 64.9%

Odds: 2.10 EV: +36.3%

Draw 19.9%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -38.3%

Away 15.2%

Odds: 3.75 EV: -43.0%

Model lean: Home

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 57.6% Odds: 2.38 +37.1%

Over 3.5 35.2% Odds: 4.50 +58.4%

BTTS 52.1% Odds: 2.00 +4.2%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Deportivo Pasto

2.10

Santa Fe

0.90

Model SuggestionHome +36.3% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+58.4%)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.22) vs P(Home)=64.9%