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Deportivo Pasto vs Santa Fe Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Apertura - 18 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 23:00

Deportivo Pasto

PPG 2.22 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Santa Fe

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.9% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+36.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-14.5%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.5%1-19.4%1-24.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.7%3-16.9%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-15.9%4+-22.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.9% 47.6% 2.10 +36.3%

Draw 19.9% 32.3% 3.10 -38.3%

Away win 15.2% 26.7% 3.75 -43.0%

Over 2.5 57.6% 42.0% 2.38 +37.1%

Over 3.5 35.2% 22.2% 4.50 +58.4%

BTTS 52.1% 50.0% 2.00 +4.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 16.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.1%

H 65% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 1–0 10.5%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–1 9.4%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Pasto2.1

Santa Fe0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.6% · O3.5 PROB 35.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO PASTO · PPG 2.22

SANTA FE · PPG 1.22

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.22) vs P(Home)=64.9%

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Pasto (H) 64.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +36.3%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -38.3%

Santa Fe (A) 15.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -43.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Pasto face Santa Fe in Colombia - Primera A on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Pasto a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Santa Fe 15%, so Deportivo Pasto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Deportivo Pasto and 0.9 for Santa Fe (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Pasto are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.22 for Santa Fe. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +58.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Deportivo Pasto vs Santa Fe Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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