Today / Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina / Defensa y J. vs Boca Juniors

Defensa y J. vs Boca Juniors Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura - 16 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 23:00

Defensa y J.

PPG 1.14 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

Boca Juniors

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.9%0-113.0%0-25.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.1%1-113.1%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.6%2-16.6%2-22.5%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.9%3-12.2%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 29.0% 3.45 +38.7%

Draw 32.8% 33.3% 3.00 -1.6%

Away win 27.0% 44.6% 2.24 -39.5%

Over 2.5 26.3% 38.5% 2.60 -31.6%

Over 3.5 10.5% 19.0% 5.25 -44.9%

BTTS 34.0% 47.6% 2.10 -28.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -39.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob34.0%

H 40% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.1%

#2 0–0 16.9%

#3 1–1 13.1%

#4 0–1 13.0%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensa y J.1.0

Boca Juniors0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 26.3% · O3.5 PROB 10.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSA Y J. · PPG 1.14

BOCA JUNIORS · PPG 1.67

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.67) strong but model favors Home (P=40.2%)

Win probability 1X2

Defensa y J. (H) 40.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +38.7%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -1.6%

Boca Juniors (A) 27.0%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -39.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensa y J. face Boca Juniors in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensa y J. a 40% chance, the draw 33% and Boca Juniors 27%, so Defensa y J. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Defensa y J. and 0.8 for Boca Juniors (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensa y J. are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.67 for Boca Juniors. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +38.7%. This match finished 0-4.

Defensa y J. vs Boca Juniors Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina Predictions