Super Liga
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
Upcoming Super Liga predictions
DateMatchPickProbOddsEV
4 SEPT17:00 Novi Pazar vs Železničar Pančevo BTTS 53% 1.65 -13%// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 59 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
44.1%
1X2
26/59
47.5%
O/U 2.5
28/59
42.4%
BTTS
25/59
47.5%
Exact score
28/59
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
16
Settled
31.2%
Hit rate
5/16
1.91
Avg odds
-37.4%
ROI
-6.0u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=6 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.81 · -38.3% ROI
HOME WIN · N=5 40.0% HIT · AVG 1.97 · -19.6% ROI
BTTS · N=5 20.0% HIT · AVG 1.96 · -54.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
✓ Solid
3
Bets
33%
Hit
-23.3%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
9
Bets
22%
Hit
-58.9%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
4
Bets
50%
Hit
+0.5%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 11 PICKS · 5 HIT · 6 MISS
31 AUG FK Partizan vs OFK Beograd BTTS -14% 3–1 HIT30 AUG IMT Novi Beograd vs Mladost Lucani — NO PICK 2–0 —29 AUG Železničar Pančevo vs Radnik Surdulica — NO PICK 5–1 —29 AUG Radnicki NIS vs Radnicki 1923 — NO PICK 1–1 —29 AUG Cukaricki vs Vojvodina BTTS -9% 0–5 MISS23 AUG Radnik Surdulica vs Novi Pazar Home -5% 1–0 HIT23 AUG FK Crvena Zvezda vs Cukaricki HO1.5 4–0 HIT23 AUG Vojvodina vs Železničar Pančevo HO1.5 1–0 MISS23 AUG Mladost Lucani vs FK Partizan BTTS -13% 3–1 HIT22 AUG Radnicki 1923 vs IMT Novi Beograd — NO PICK 2–1 —17 AUG Novi Pazar vs Vojvodina BTTS -16% 2–0 MISS16 AUG IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnicki NIS Home +17% 0–0 MISS16 AUG FK Partizan vs Radnicki 1923 HO1.5 0–1 MISS15 AUG Cukaricki vs OFK Beograd Over 2.5 +4% 2–0 MISS9 AUG Vojvodina vs Radnik Surdulica Home -14% 2–1 HIT