Super Liga

SERBIA · 37 MATCHES TRACKED · 18 APR 2026 – 24 MAY 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 37 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

37.8%

1X2

14/37

43.2%

O/U 2.5

16/37

40.5%

BTTS

15/37

48.6%

Exact score

18/37

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

58.1%

Hit rate

18/31

1.75

Avg odds

-0.0%

ROI

-0.0u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

BTTS · N=18 55.6% HIT · AVG 1.81 · -1.1% ROI

HOME WIN · N=7 85.7% HIT · AVG 1.59 · +33.6% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=6 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.77 · -36.2% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

✓ Solid

Bets

50%

Hit

-11.5%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

17%

Hit

-66.7%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

71%

Hit

+21.2%

ROI

Match log

37 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 13 PICKS · 9 HIT · 4 MISS

24 MAY Radnicki 1923 vs Javor Ivanjica BTTS +15% 2–2 HIT 24 MAY Mladost Lucani vs Napredak Home -42% 1–0 HIT 24 MAY IMT N. Beograd vs Backa Topola BTTS -6% 1–1 HIT 23 MAY Partizan vs R. Surdulica Over 2.5 -5% 5–0 HIT 23 MAY Vojvodina vs Novi Pazar Home -22% 3–0 HIT 17 MAY Cukaricki vs Partizan Over 2.5 +3% 0–0 MISS 17 MAY Novi Pazar vs Z. Pancevo BTTS -16% 2–2 HIT 17 MAY OFK Beograd vs Vojvodina BTTS -15% 1–2 HIT 16 MAY Javor Ivanjica vs Mladost Lucani — NO PICK 2–4 —16 MAY Napredak vs Radnicki 1923 BTTS -0% 0–0 MISS 16 MAY Backa Topola vs Radnicki Nis BTTS -16% 1–2 HIT 10 MAY IMT N. Beograd vs Radnicki 1923 BTTS -10% 0–0 MISS 10 MAY Radnicki Nis vs Mladost Lucani BTTS -7% 1–0 MISS 10 MAY Backa Topola vs Javor Ivanjica BTTS -8% 6–1 HIT 9 MAY Z. Pancevo vs R. Surdulica — NO PICK 1–1 —